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Summary
Summary
The expert, all-inclusive guide on LNG risk based safety
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is the condensed form of natural gas achieved by cryogenic chilling. This process reduces gas to a liquid 600 times smaller in volume than it is in its original state, making it suitable for economical global transportation. LNG has been traded internationally and used with a good safety record since the 1960s. However, with some accidents occurring with the storage and liquefaction of LNG, a good understanding of its mechanisms, and its potential ramifications to facilities and to the nearby public, is becoming critically important. With an unbiased eye, this book leans on the expertise of its authors and LNG professionals worldwide to examine these serious safety issues, while addressing many false assumptions surrounding this volatile energy source.
LNG Risk Based Safety :
Summarizes the findings of the Governmental Accountability Office's (GAO) survey of nineteen LNG experts from across North America and Europe
Reviews the history of LNG technology developments
Systematically reviews the various consequences from LNG releases-- discharge, evaporation, dispersion, fire, and other impacts, and identifies best current approaches to model possible consequence zones
Includes discussion of case studies and LNG-related accidents over the past fifty years
Covering every aspect of this controversial topic, LNG Risk Based Safety informs the reader with firm conclusions based on highly credible investigation, and offers practical recommendations that researchers and developers can apply to reduce hazards and extend LNG technology.
Author Notes
John L. Woodward, PhD, is Senior Principal Consultant in the Process Safety Division of Baker Engineering and Risk Consultants, Inc. in San Antonio, Texas. He has been actively involved in consequence modeling for both the DNV PHAST and BakerRisk SafeSite codes for many years. He was invited by the GAO (Government Accountability Office) as part of a team of LNG experts to review LNG safety issues.
Robin M. Pitblado, PhD, is Director for SHE Risk Management for Det Norske Veritas and is based in Houston, Texas. He has been active in consequence modeling, risk assessment and major accident investigation for over thirty years and was also a member of the GAO Panel of LNG Experts.
Table of Contents
Preface | p. xv |
1 LNG Properties and Overview of Hazards | p. 1 |
1.1 LNG Properties | p. 2 |
1.2 Hazards of LNG with Respect to Public Risk | p. 4 |
1.2.1 Flash Fire, Pool Fire, or Jet Fire | p. 7 |
1.2.2 Outdoor Vapor Cloud Explosions | p. 8 |
1.2.3 Enclosed Vapor Cloud Explosions | p. 9 |
1.2.4 Asphyxiation | p. 9 |
1.2.5 Freeze Burns | p. 9 |
1.2.6 RPT Explosions | p. 10 |
1.2.7 Roll Over | p. 10 |
1.3 Risk Analysis Requires Adequate Modeling | p. 10 |
1.4 Flammability | p. 11 |
1.5 Regulations in Siting Onshore LNG Import Terminals | p. 13 |
1.5.1 U.S. Marine LNG Risk and Security Regulation | p. 13 |
1.5.2 U.S. Land-Based LNG Risk and Security Regulation | p. 14 |
1.5.3 European and International Regulations | p. 15 |
1.6 Regulation for Siting Offshore LNG Import Terminals | p. 16 |
1.7 Controversial Claims of LNG Opponents | p. 16 |
2 LNG Incidents and Marine History | p. 20 |
2.1 LNG Ship Design History | p. 20 |
2.1.1 Initial Design Attempts | p. 21 |
2.1.2 Tank Materials | p. 21 |
2.1.3 Insulation Materials | p. 21 |
2.1.4 Tank Design | p. 21 |
2.2 Design and Issues-First Commercial LNG Ships | p. 22 |
2.2.1 Membrane Technology | p. 23 |
2.2.2 Gaztransport Solution | p. 24 |
2.2.3 Spheres | p. 25 |
2.2.4 LNG Carriers for the Asian Trade | p. 26 |
2.2.5 Current State of LNG Tankers | p. 27 |
2.3 LNG Trade History | p. 27 |
2.3.1 European Trade | p. 27 |
2.3.2 Asian Trade | p. 28 |
2.3.3 Temporary Setbacks | p. 28 |
2.3.4 Revival of LNG with Worldwide Supply-Demand Pinch of Petroleum | p. 28 |
2.3.5 Supply History | p. 29 |
2.3.6 Some Economic Factors | p. 30 |
2.4 LNG Accident History | p. 32 |
2.5 Summary of LNG History and Relevant Technical Developments | p. 35 |
3 Current LNG Carriers | p. 37 |
3.1 Design Requirements | p. 39 |
3.2 Membrane Tanks | p. 39 |
3.2.1 Tank Design and Insulation | p. 39 |
3.2.2 Dimensions and Capacity | p. 41 |
3.2.3 Tank Materials and Insulation | p. 42 |
3.2.4 Pressure and Vacuum Relief | p. 44 |
3.2.5 Design Issues | p. 44 |
3.3 Moss Spheres | p. 46 |
3.3.1 Typical Dimensions and Capacity | p. 47 |
3.3.2 Insulation and Tank Materials | p. 48 |
3.3.3 Pressure and Vacuum Relief | p. 48 |
3.3.4 Design Issues | p. 48 |
4 Risk Analysis and Risk Reduction | p. 50 |
4.1 Background | p. 51 |
4.2 Risk Analysis Process | p. 52 |
4.2.1 Hazard Identification | p. 54 |
4.3 Frequency: Data Sources and Analysis | p. 57 |
4.3.1 Generic Data Approach | p. 57 |
4.4 Frequency: Predictive Methods | p. 58 |
4.4.1 FTA | p. 59 |
4.4.2 Event Tree Analysis | p. 60 |
4.5 Consequence Modeling | p. 64 |
4.6 Ignition Probability | p. 64 |
4.7 Risk Results | p. 68 |
4.7.1 Risk Presentation | p. 68 |
4.7.2 Risk Decision Making | p. 70 |
4.8 Special Issues-Terrorism | p. 70 |
4.9 Risk Reduction and Mitigation Measures for LNG | p. 71 |
5 LNG Discharge on Water | p. 74 |
5.1 Type 1-Above Water Breaches at Sea | p. 76 |
5.1.1 Ship-to-Ship Collisions | p. 76 |
5.1.2 Weapons Attack | p. 80 |
5.2 Type 2-At Waterline Breaches at Sea | p. 81 |
5.2.1 Grounding or Collision | p. 81 |
5.2.2 Explosive-Laden Boat Attack | p. 81 |
5.3 Type 3-Below Waterline Breaches at Sea | p. 84 |
5.4 Discharges from Ship's Pipework | p. 85 |
5.5 Cascading Failures at Sea | p. 86 |
5.5.1 Sloshing Forces | p. 86 |
5.5.2 Explosion in Hull Chambers | p. 87 |
5.5.3 RPT in Hull Chambers | p. 87 |
5.5.4 Cryogenic Temperature Stresses on Decks and Hull | p. 87 |
5.5.5 Cascading Events Caused by Fire | p. 88 |
5.6 Initial Discharge Rate | p. 88 |
5.7 Time-Dependent Discharge (Blowdown) | p. 90 |
5.7.1 Blowdown for Type 2 Breach (at Waterline) | p. 90 |
5.7.2 Blowdown for Type 1 Breach (above Waterline) | p. 92 |
5.7.3 Blowdown of Type 3 Breach (Underwater Level) | p. 94 |
5.8 Vacuum Breaking and Glug-Glug Effects | p. 103 |
6 Risk Analysis for Onshore Terminals and Transport | p. 104 |
6.1 Typical Basis for LNG Receiving Terminal | p. 104 |
6.2 Features of LNG Receiving Terminals | p. 105 |
6.3 Standards for Receiving Terminal Design | p. 110 |
6.4 U.S. Guidelines and Regulations for Receiving Terminals | p. 112 |
6.4.1 LNG Transport Administered by the Department of Transportation (DOT) and the U.S. Coast Guard | p. 113 |
6.4.2 LNG Terminal Permitting by Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) | p. 113 |
6.4.3 Pool Fire Radiation Exclusion Zone | p. 114 |
6.4.4 Vapor Dispersion Exclusion Zone | p. 116 |
6.5 European Regulations for LNG Receiving Terminals | p. 119 |
6.5.1 Features of EN 1473 | p. 119 |
6.5.2 Comparison of Prescriptive and Risk-Based Approaches | p. 120 |
6.6 Empirical Formula for Required Land Area of Terminal | p. 121 |
6.7 Leak in Loading Arm or in Storage Tank | p. 123 |
6.7.1 Modeling Effects of Substrate on Evaporation Rate | p. 124 |
6.7.2 Vapor Hold-Up Effect on Dispersion Zone Calculation | p. 126 |
6.8 Rollover | p. 129 |
6.9 LNG Land Transport Risk | p. 132 |
6.10 Offshore LNG Terminals | p. 132 |
7 LNG Pool Modeling | p. 134 |
7.1 Flashing and Droplet Evaporation in Jet Flow | p. 135 |
7.2 Pool Spread and Evaporation Modeling | p. 136 |
7.2.1 Spread Rate on Smooth Surface | p. 138 |
7.2.2 Pool Spread on Land | p. 144 |
7.2.3 Pool Evaporation on Smooth Water Surface, Test Data | p. 144 |
7.2.4 Pool Evaporation, Heat Transfer Regimes | p. 145 |
7.2.5 Heat Conduction on Shallow Water with Ice Formation | p. 150 |
7.2.6 Composition Changes with Evaporation | p. 151 |
7.2.7 Type 1 Breach-LNG Penetration into Water, Turbulent Heat Transfer | p. 153 |
7.2.8 Time-Dependent Pool Spread | p. 156 |
7.3 Rapid Phase Transition Explosions | p. 159 |
7.3.1 Historical Experience with LNG RPTs | p. 160 |
7.3.2 Similar Phenomena More Thoroughly Investigated | p. 161 |
7.3.3 Explosion Energy of an RPT | p. 162 |
7.3.4 Models of RPT Explosions | p. 162 |
7.3.5 Superheat Limits | p. 165 |
7.3.6 TNT Equivalence | p. 166 |
7.4 Aerosol Drop Size | p. 166 |
7.4.1 Drop Size Distribution | p. 167 |
7.4.2 Droplet Breakup Mechanisms | p. 168 |
7.5 Heat Balance Terms to LNG Pool | p. 169 |
7.5.1 Heat Conduction from Solid Substrate | p. 169 |
7.5.2 Heat Convection from Wind | p. 170 |
7.5.3 Radiation to/from Pool | p. 170 |
7.5.4 Evaporative Cooling on Water | p. 171 |
7.5.5 Bubble Flow in Vaporizing LNG | p. 171 |
7.6 Nomenclature | p. 172 |
8 Vapor Cloud Dispersion Modeling | p. 175 |
8.1 Atmospheric Transport Processes | p. 175 |
8.1.1 Wind Speed, Stability, and Surface Roughness | p. 176 |
8.1.2 Effect of Obstructions | p. 181 |
8.2 Model Types | p. 181 |
8.2.1 Gaussian Models | p. 182 |
8.2.2 Integral or Similarity Models | p. 183 |
8.2.3 CFD | p. 185 |
8.3 LNG Dispersion Test Series | p. 188 |
8.4 Factors Affecting Plume Length | p. 193 |
8.4.1 Heavy Gas Properties Increase Hazard Area | p. 193 |
8.4.2 Models Predict Average Conditions of Fluctuating Plume | p. 197 |
8.4.3 Wind Speed for Longest Plume | p. 201 |
8.4.4 LNG Vapor Cloud Lift-Off Limits Hazardous Plume Length | p. 202 |
8.4.5 Scooping of Confined Vapors | p. 202 |
8.5 Effect of Wind, Currents, and Waves on LNG Plume | p. 204 |
8.6 Comparsion of Dispersion Model Predictions | p. 205 |
8.7 Descriptions of Dispersion Test Series | p. 209 |
8.7.1 Matagorda Bay Tests | p. 209 |
8.7.2 Shell Jettison Tests | p. 209 |
8.7.3 Avocet, Burro, and Coyote Test Series | p. 210 |
8.7.4 Maplin Sands Test Series | p. 210 |
8.7.5 Falcon Test Series | p. 211 |
8.8 Vapor Intrusion Indoors | p. 212 |
8.8.1 Basic Response for Indoor Concentration Buildup | p. 212 |
8.8.2 Experimental Observations Show Low Indoor Concentrations | p. 214 |
8.8.3 Concentration Reduction by Plume Impinging on Buildings | p. 214 |
8.8.4 Models of Infiltration into Buildings | p. 215 |
8.9 Theoretical Basis for Suppression of Turbulence | p. 220 |
9 LNG Pool Fire Modeling | p. 222 |
9.1 Types of Fires from LNG Facilities | p. 222 |
9.2 The Challenge for Pool Fire Modeling | p. 223 |
9.3 Pool Fire Characteristics | p. 223 |
9.3.1 Fires Are Low-Momentum Phenomena | p. 223 |
9.3.2 Fire Structure | p. 225 |
9.3.3 Simplifying Pool Fire Structure | p. 228 |
9.4 Summary of LNG Fire Experiments | p. 230 |
9.5 Burning Rate Data and Correlations From Fire Tests | p. 230 |
9.5.1 Consistency Checks between Evaporation Rate and Burning Rate | p. 236 |
9.5.2 Stopping Point for Pool Fire | p. 236 |
9.6 Point Source Fire Model | p. 237 |
9.7 Solid Flame Models: Flame Length Correlations | p. 239 |
9.7.1 Small-Scale Pool Fire Tests and Flame Length Correlations | p. 240 |
9.7.2 Medium-Scale Pool Fire Tests and Flame Length Correlations | p. 245 |
9.7.3 Large-Scale Pool Fire Tests and Flame Length Correlations | p. 248 |
9.8 Flame Tilt Correlations | p. 249 |
9.9 Flame Drag Near Pools | p. 252 |
9.10 Sep Correlations and Smoke Shielding | p. 253 |
9.10.1 SEP from Tests | p. 253 |
9.10.2 Smoke Shielding and Theoretical SEP Values | p. 254 |
9.10.3 Validation Comparison of a Three-Zone SEP Model | p. 259 |
9.11 Atmospheric Transmissivity | p. 259 |
9.12 Trench Fires | p. 262 |
9.13 View Factors | p. 264 |
9.14 CFD Modeling | p. 266 |
9.15 Comparison of Model Predictions | p. 268 |
9.16 Fire Engulfment of LNG Carrier | p. 271 |
10 Other LNG Hazards | p. 275 |
10.1 Fire and Explosion Scenarios | p. 275 |
10.2 Jet Fires | p. 276 |
10.3 Flash Fires | p. 286 |
10.4 BLEVEs, Fireballs | p. 291 |
10.4.1 BLEVEs and Applicability to LNG | p. 292 |
10.4.2 Applicability of BLEVEs to LNG Marine Vessels | p. 294 |
10.4.3 Fireballs from Released Vapor | p. 297 |
10.5 LNG Vapor Cloud Explosions | p. 302 |
10.5.1 Characteristics of Detonations and Deflagrations | p. 303 |
10.5.2 Fuel Reactivity Effects | p. 306 |
10.5.3 Modeling VCEs | p. 308 |
10.5.4 CFD Modeling of VCEs | p. 311 |
10.6 Asphyxiation and Cryogenic Hazard from LNG Spills | p. 313 |
11 Fire Effects | p. 318 |
11.1 Fire Radiation Effects on Individuals | p. 318 |
11.1.1 Injuries to People-Definition of Burn Degrees | p. 318 |
11.1.2 Measured Effect Levels from Radiation Exposure | p. 319 |
11.1.3 Thresholds of Injury on Thermal Dose Basis | p. 322 |
11.1.4 Radiation Dosage from Transient Events | p. 324 |
11.2 Effects of Thermal Radiation on Property | p. 324 |
11.2.1 Equipment Degradation by Thermal Radiation | p. 324 |
11.2.2 Thermal Weakening of Steel and Concrete | p. 325 |
11.2.3 Bursting Pressure Vessels, Rail Tank Cars | p. 327 |
12 Research Needs | p. 329 |
12.1 Uncertainties | p. 329 |
12.2 Recommendations of GAO Survey | p. 330 |
12.3 LNG Model Evaluation Protocols (MEPs) | p. 333 |
12.4 Special Topics | p. 335 |
12.4.1 LNG Pool Spill and Fire Tests | p. 335 |
12.4.2 Limitation of Boussinesq Approximation | p. 337 |
12.4.3 LNG Plumes Not Modeled Well for Calm Winds | p. 337 |
12.4.4 The Use of 1/2 LFL as an End Point | p. 338 |
12.5 Conclusions | p. 339 |
References | p. 341 |
Index | p. 369 |