Seasonal forecasts, climatic change and human health

Awareness that many key aspects of public health are strongly influenced by climate is growing dramatically, driven by new research and experience and fears of climate change and the research needed to underpin policy developments in area is growing rapidly. This awareness has yet to translate into a practical use of climate knowledge by health policy-makers. Evidence based policy and practice is the mantra of the health sector. If climate scientists are to contribute effectively to health policy at local and global scales then careful empirical studies must be undertaken - focused on the needs of the public health policy and decision-makers.

Results presented at the Wengen conference make clear that the science and art of integrating climate knowledge into the control of climate sensitive diseases on a year to year time frame as well as careful assessments of the potential impacts of climate change on health outcomes over longer time frames is advancing rapidly on many fronts. This includes advances in the empirical understanding of mechanisms, methodologies for modeling future impacts, new partnership developments between the health and climate community along with access to relevant data resources, and education and training. In a rapidly evolving field this book provides a snapshot of these emerging themes.

Stephen J. Connor and Madeleine C. Thomson and Bettina MenneChris D. HewittSimon J. MasonLouise Kelly-Hope and Madeleine C. ThomsonStephen J. Connor and Gilma C. MantillaLuis E. Cuevas and C. Anthony Hart and Madeleine C. ThomsonDaniel Ruiz and Stephen J. Connor and Madeleine C. ThomsonMadeleine C. Thomson and Stephen J. Connor and Bettina MenneMartin Beniston and Ricardo Garcia-HerreraYves M. Tourre and Jean P. Lacaux and Antonio Guell and M. LaFaye and Philippe Sabatier and Eliane Coeffier and Laurent BraakKim Knowlton and Christian Hogrefe and Barry Lynn and Cynthia Rosenzweig and Joyce Rosenthal and Patrick L. KinneyAndreas Matzarakis and Bas AmelungPanagiotis Th. NastosJoan L. AronPatrick L. Kinney and Ricardo Garcia-Herrera and Stephen J. Connor

Acknowledgements	p. v
Contributors	p. ix
Part I Seasonal Climate Forecasting for Health	p. 1
Chapter 1 The Impact on Human Health of Climate and Climate Change: Research in the ENSEMBLES Project from Seasonal to Centennial Timescales	p. 5
Chapter 2 "Flowering Walnuts in the Wood" and Other Bases for Seasonal Climate Forecasting	p. 13
Chapter 3 Climate and Infectious Diseases	p. 31
Chapter 4 Integration of Seasonal Forecasts into Early Warning Systems for Climate-Sensitive Diseases such as Malaria and Dengue	p. 71
Chapter 5 Climate and Environmental Information and the Control of Epidemic Meningitis in Africa	p. 85
Chapter 6 A Multimodel Framework in Support of Malaria Surveillance and Control	p. 101
Recent Developments and Next Steps in Seasonal Forecasting and Health	p. 127
Part II Climate Change and Health	p. 131
Chapter 7 The RedGems Information System: Climate, Environment and Public Health	p. 135
Chapter 8 Impacts of Heat and Ozone on Mortality Risk in the New York City Metropolitan Region Under a Changing Climate	p. 143
Chapter 9 Physiological Equivalent Temperature as Indicator for Impacts of Climate Change on Thermal Comfort of Humans	p. 161
Chapter 10 Weather, Ambient Air Pollution and Bronchial Asthma in Athens, Greece	p. 173
Chapter 11 Outreach from the IAI Collaborative Research Network on Climate Variability and Human Health Impacts in the Tropical Americas	p. 189
Recent Developments and Next Steps in Climate Change and Health	p. 203
Colour Plates: Appendix 1	p. 207
Colour Plates: Appendix 2	p. 213
Author Index	p. 223
Subject Index	p. 229

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