Changes in flood risk in Europe

This book delivers a wealth of information on changes in flood risk in Europe, and considers causes for change. The temporal coverage is mostly focused on post-1900 events, reflecting the typical availability of data, but some information on earlier flood events is also included.

Author Notes

Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz is an authority on floods and climate change, works closely with the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), is a member of the Advisory Board on the Environment of the European Union Seventh framework Programme, and is Co-Editor of Hydrological Sciences Journal. Ho is a Corresponding Member of the Polish Academy of Sciences (PAS), Professor of Earth Sciences and Head of the Department of Climate and Water Resources at the Institute for Agricultural and Forest Environment, PAS, Poznan, Poland, and an associate of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany.

Gordon YoungZbigniew W. KundzewiczOlga ZolinaGüinter Blöschl and Ralf Merz and Juraj Parajka and José Salinas and Alberto ViglioneFred F. Hattermann and Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz and Shaochun Huang and Tobias Vetter and Wolfgang Kron and Olaf Burghoff and Bruno Merz and Axel Bronstert and Valentina Krysanova and Friedrich-Wilhelm Gerstengarbe and Peter Werner and Ylva Hauf

Foreword	p. ix
Preface	p. xi
1 IntroductionZbigniew W. Kundzewicz
1.1 Preliminaries	p. 1
1.2 Structure of the Book	p. 1
1.3 Flood Risk Change	p. 4
1.4 Concluding Remarks	p. 5
I Facets of Change
2 Changes in Flood Risk - Setting the StageZbigniew W. Kundzewicz and Erich J. Plate and Harvey J. E. Rodda and John C. Rodda and Hans Joachim Scheilnhuber and Witold G. Strupczewski
2.1 Introduction	p. 11
2.2 Flood Risk	p. 13
2.3 Multi-causality	p. 15
2.4 Recent Changes in Flood Risk	p. 16
2.5 Adaptation - Flood Risk Reduction	p. 19
2.6 Concluding Remarks	p. 24
3 Catalogue of Large Floods in Europe in the 20th CenturyAdam Chorynski and Iwona Pinskwar and Wolfgang Kron and G. Robert Brakenridge and Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz
3.1 Introduction and Outline	p. 27
3.2 Sources of Information	p. 28
3.3 Known Errors and Uncertainties	p. 29
3.4 The Flood Catalogue	p. 32
3.5 Concluding Remarks	p. 53
4 Large-scale Flooding in Europe, 1961-2005Christel Prudhomme and Simon Parry and Marie Genevier and Jamie Hannaford and Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz
4.1 Introduction	p. 55
4.2 A Catalogue of European Regional High Flows, 1961-2005	p. 56
4.3 Flood Peaks and Preceding Circulation Types: Relationships in Europe	p. 70
5 Changing Floods in EuropeIwona Pinskwar and Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz and Pascal Peduzzi and G. Robert Brakenridge and Kerstin Stahl and Jamie Hannaford
5.1 Introduction	p. 83
5.2 Observed Development of Climatic Drivers	p. 83
5.3 Changes in River Discharge	p. 85
5.4 Changes in Maximum Flow	p. 87
5.5 Exposure to Floods	p. 89
5.6 Changes in Flood Risk in Europe	p. 89
5.7 Concluding Remarks	p. 95
6 Changes in Intense Precipitation in Europe	p. 97
6.1 Introduction	p. 97
6.2 Data for Estimation of Intense Precipitation	p. 98
6.3 Absolute Precipitation Extremes over Europe	p. 100
6.4 Climate Tendencies in the Relative Precipitation Extremeness over Europe	p. 106
6.5 Changes in Temporal Structure of European Precipitation	p. 112
6.6 Summary and Conclusions	p. 116
7 Historical Floods in Europe in the Past MillenniumRudolf Brázdil and Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz and Gerardo Benito and Gaston Demarée and Neil Macdonald and Lars A. Roald
7.1 Introduction	p. 121
7.2 Beginnings of Instrumental Hydrological Measurements	p. 123
7.3 Documentary Data about Floods	p. 131
7.4 Historical Floods in Europe in the Past Millennium	p. 136
7.5 Discussion	p. 150
7.6 Conclusions	p. 154
II National and Regional Perspectives on Floods
8 Floods in Austria	p. 169
8.1 Introduction	p. 169
8.2 Flood Processes in Austria	p. 169
8.3 Changes of Floods in the Past	p. 170
8.4 Predictability of Flood Changes	p. 173
9 Floods in the Czech RepublicR. Brázdil and L. Reznicková and M. Havlícek and L. Elleder
9.1 Introduction	p. 178
9.2 Hydrological Observations	p. 179
9.3 Changes of Factors Influencing Floods 1901-2010	p. 180
9.4 Frequency and Magnitude of Floods, 1901-2010	p. 186
9.5 The Most Disastrous Floods, 1901-2010	p. 188
9.6 Floods in the Context of the Changing Environment: Discussion	p. 191
9.7 Conclusions	p. 195
10 Floods in FranceIgnazio Giuntoli and Benjamin Renard and Michel Lang
10.1 Introduction	p. 199
10.2 The Data Set	p. 200
10.3 Methods	p. 201
10.4 Results	p. 205
10.5 Conclusions	p. 210
11 Flood Risk from a Holistic Perspective - Observed Changes in Germany	p. 212
11.1 Introduction and Outline	p. 212
11.2 Climate and Hydrological Characteristics of Germany	p. 213
11.3 Data and Methodology	p. 217
11.4 Changes of Factors Driving Flood Hazard	p. 217
11.5 Non-climatic Drivers of Flood Hazard: Land-use Change and River Training Effects	p. 227
11.6 River Discharge	p. 231
11.7 Flood Damage	p. 233
11.8 Concluding Remarks	p. 234
12 Floods in GreeceD. Koutsoyiannis and N. Mamassis and A. Efstratiadis and N. Zarkadoulas and I. Markonis
12.1 Introduction	p. 238
12.2 Reflections from the Past: Analysis of Palaeofloods	p. 241
12.3 Reflections from the Past: Flood Mythology	p. 243
12.4 Reflections from the Past: Flood Control in Greek Antiquity	p. 247
12.5 Modern Greece: Positive and Negative Experiences	p. 250
12.6 Concluding Remarks	p. 255
13 Floods in IcelandÁrni Snorrason and Bergur Einarsson and Emmanuel Pagneux and Jórunn Harðardóttir and Matthew J. Roberts and Oddur Sigurðsson and Óðinn Thórarinsson and Philippe Crochet and Tómas Jóhannesson and Thorsteinn Thorsteinsson
13.1 Introduction	p. 257
13.2 Types of Floods in Iceland	p. 257
13.3 Case Studies	p. 261
13.4 Concluding Remarks	p. 273
14 Flood Risk in ItalyPaola Salvati and Cinzia Bianchi and Mauro Rossi and Fausto Guzzetti
14.1 Introduction	p. 277
14.2 Record of Harmful Flood Events in Italy	p. 277
14.3 Risk Evaluation	p. 282
14.4 Comparison to Other Natural Hazards	p. 289
14.5 Conclusions	p. 291
15 Floods in The NetherlandsJ. K. Vrijling
15.1 Introduction	p. 293
15.2 Chronology of Major Flood Events	p. 296
15.3 Conclusions	p. 302
16 Floods in NorwayLars Andreas Roald
16.1 Introduction	p. 304
16.2 Winter Floods	p. 306
16.3 Snowmelt Spring Floods	p. 306
16.4 Summer Rainfall Floods	p. 309
16.5 Autumn Floods	p. 310
16.6 Ice-run Floods	p. 312
16.7 Floods from Glacier-dammed Lakes û Jókullhlaup	p. 313
16.8 Trends in Streamflow and the Occurrence of Floods	p. 313
16.9 Update-Floods in 2011	p. 316
17 Floods in PolandZbigniew W. Kundzewicz and Andrzej Dobrowolski and Halina Lorenc and Tadeusz Niedzwiedz and Iwona Pihskwar and Piotr Kowalczak
17.1 Introduction	p. 319
17.2 Hydrography of Poland in a Nutshell	p. 319
17.3 Climatic Drivers	p. 321
17.4 Causes of Floods in Poland and their Spatial and Temporal Distribution	p. 323
17.5 Chronology of Floods in Poland	p. 328
17.6 Concluding Remarks	p. 332
18 Floods in SwitzerlandPetra Schmocker-Fackel and Felix Naef
18.1 Introduction	p. 335
18.2 Data and Study Site	p. 335
18.3 Changes in Flood Frequency since 1850	p. 337
18.4 Atmospheric Circulation and Floods	p. 338
18.5 Changes in Flood Frequency since 1500	p. 339
18.6 Concluding Remarks	p. 341
19 Flood Risk in the UK: Evidence of Change and Management ResponsesJamie Hannaford and Jim W. Hall
19.1 Introduction	p. 344
19.2 Background: Climate, Hydrology and Flooding	p. 345
19.3 Recent Major Floods in the UK	p. 348
19.4 Observed Climate Changes Relevant to Flooding	p. 348
19.5 Trends in Fluvial Flooding	p. 351
19.6 Links Between Flooding and Atmospheric Circulation	p. 352
19.7 A Longer-term Perspective	p. 353
19.8 Changes in Flood Risk and Flood Risk Management	p. 355
19.9 Concluding Remarks	p. 357
20 Floods in the Alpine Areas of EuropeAntoine Bard and Benjamin Renard and Michel Lang
20.1 Introduction	p. 362
20.2 The Data Set	p. 363
20.3 Methods	p. 367
20.4 Results	p. 368
20.5 Conclusions	p. 370
21 Floods in the Iberian PeninsulaGerardo Benito and Maria J. Machado
21.1 Introduction	p. 372
21.2 Flood Hydroclimatology	p. 372
21.3 Observed Flood Records	p. 376
21.4 Socio-economic Losses Due to Flooding	p. 378
21.5 Discussion and Conclusions	p. 380
III Detection and Attribution of Change, and Prospects
22 Detection of ChangesSheng Yue and Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz and Linghui Wang
22.1 Introduction	p. 387
22.2 Statistical Principles for Trend Detection	p. 388
22.3 Site Significance Tests	p. 390
22.4 Field Significance Tests	p. 396
22.5 Pitfalls in Trend Detection	p. 402
22.6 Procedures for Trend Detection	p. 405
23 Detection and Attribution of Climate Change and Its ImpactsZbigniew W. Kundzewicz and Wolfgang Cramer
23.1 Introduction	p. 409
23.2 Attribution of Global Warming in a Multi-factor Context	p. 410
23.3 Controversy about Detection and Attribution of Climate Change	p. 416
23.4 Detection and Attribution of Climate Change Impacts	p. 417
23.5 Concluding Remarks	p. 419
24 Detection and Attribution of Changes in Water ResourcesDieter Gerten and Wolfgang Lucht and Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz
24.1 Introduction	p. 421
24.2 What Influences Global River Discharge?	p. 421
24.3 Uncertainties in Estimates of Precipitation and River Flow	p. 423
24.4 The Model and Data Used, and Simulations Performed for this Study	p. 425
24.5 Results and Discussion	p. 426
24.6 Conclusion	p. 431
25 Detection and Attribution of Changes in Flood Hazard and RiskBruno Merz and Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz and Jose Delgado and Yeshewa Hundecha and Heidi Kreibich
25.1 Introduction	p. 435
25.2 Drivers of Changing Flood Hazard and Risk	p. 436
25.3 Changes in Flood Hazard	p. 438
25.4 Changes in Vulnerability and Risk	p. 450
25.5 Climate Change and Flood Trends	p. 453
25.6 Conclusions	p. 454
26 Changing Flood Risk - A Re-insurer's ViewpointWolfgang Kron
26.1 Introduction	p. 459
26.2 Flood Disasters and Flood Losses in Europe	p. 459
26.3 Types of Flood	p. 467
26.4 Reasons for the Increasing Flood Risk	p. 470
26.5 Flood Risk Reduction	p. 479
26.6 Final Remarks	p. 489
27 Projections of Flood Risk in EuropeChristel Prudhomme and Jennifer Williamson and Simon Parry and Jamie Hannaford
27.1 European Regional High Flow Catalogue Simulated from Observed Climate	p. 491
27.2 The Future of Regional High Flows in Europe: Results from WATCH Simulations	p. 499
Index	p. 513

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Author Notes

Table of Contents