Hydrological dimensioning and operation of reservoirs : practical design concepts and principles

Storage reservoirs represent one of the most effective tools for eliminating, or at least for minimizing, discrepancies in the time and space variations of water resources distribution and requirements. In fact, the different - often contradictory - and increasing demands on water resources utilization and control usually can be fulfilled only by building multi-purpose reservoir systems. In this way, the available water resources can be exploited and/or managed in a more rational way. Typically, the construction of a dam across a river valley causes water to accumulate in a reservoir behind the dam; the volume of water accumulated in the reservoir will depend, in part, on the dimensions of the dam. The size of the dam will normally affect the capital expenditure in a very significant way. Indeed the construction of large water resource control systems - such as dams - generally involves rather huge manpower and material outlays. Consequently, the elaboration of effectual methods of approach that can be used in establishing the optimal reservoir parameters is of great practical significance. For instance, in the design and operation oflarge multi-reservoir systems, simple simulation and/or optimization models that can identify potentially cost effective and efficient system design are highly desirable. But it should be recognized that the problem of finding optimal capacities for multi-reservoir systems often becomes computationally complex because of the large number of feasible configurations that usually need to be analyzed.

Preface	p. xiii
Chapter 1 Introduction	p. 1
1.1. Water Resources Management	p. 2
1.1.1. Planning and Design of Water Resources Systems	p. 3
1.1.2. Water Resources Systems Analysis	p. 3
1.1.3. Why Build Dams?	p. 4
1.2. The Need for Flow Regulation Systems	p. 5
1.2.1. Balancing Water Supply with Water Demands	p. 5
1.2.2. The Water Balance of Reservoirs as a Tool in Reservoir Design and Management	p. 8
1.2.3. Regional Imbalance Between Water Supply and Water Demand: Transboundary River Management Issues	p. 10
1.3. Impact of Reservoir Projects on the Temporal and Spatial Variation of Streamflow Quantity and Quality	p. 11
1.3.1. Environmental Impact Issues Associated with Dam and Reservoir Projects	p. 11
1.4. Using Storage Reservoirs in Flow Regulation and Water Management Schemes	p. 13
Chapter 2 The Hydrology of Flow Regulation	p. 15
2.1. Flow Allocations	p. 15
2.2. Hydrological Problems Resulting from Water Deficiency	p. 16
2.3. Hydrological Problems Caused by Water Excess	p. 17
2.4. Types of Flow Regulation	p. 19
2.4.1. Daily Flow Regulation	p. 19
2.4.2. Weekly Flow Regulation	p. 20
2.4.3. Seasonal or Annual Flow Regulation	p. 22
2.4.4. Multiannual Flow Regulation	p. 22
2.5. Optimizing Flow Regulation Schemes	p. 25
2.6. General Characteristics of Flow Regulation Systems	p. 25
Chapter 3 Planning for Dams and Reservoirs: Hydrologic Design Elements and Operational Characteristics of Storage Reservoirs	p. 29
3.1. The Reservoir Design Problem	p. 30
3.1.1. Reservoir-Site Selection	p. 31
3.1.2. The Case for Multipurpose Reservoirs	p. 32
3.2. Multireservoir System Layout and Analyses	p. 33
3.3. Hydrological Basis for the Determination of Reservoir Storage Capacity	p. 35
3.3.1. A Model of Capacity Allocation and Survey of Water Demands in Multipurpose Reservoirs	p. 37
3.3.2. Estimating the Active Storage Necessary for Flow Regulation and Water Supply	p. 40
3.3.3. Hydroelectric Power Potential of Storage Reservoirs	p. 41
3.3.4. Storage-Space for Flood Mitigation: The Reservoir Flood Storage Capacity Design	p. 41
3.3.5. Siltation of Reservoirs and Sediment Reserve Storage	p. 44
3.3.6. Adjustment of Storage Estimates for Net Evaporation Losses	p. 48
3.3.7. Other Secondary Factors Affecting Reservoir Size-Selection	p. 51
3.4. Hydrologic Data Requirements and Analyses	p. 53
3.4.1. Selecting a Distribution for Use in the Hydrologic Design Process	p. 54
3.4.2. Bayesian Techniques for Parameter Estimation with Limited Data	p. 55
3.4.3. Design of Reservoir Storage for Stochastically Varying Water Demand	p. 57
3.5. Deterministic vs. Stochastic Methods in the Reservoir Design Problem	p. 57
3.5.1. Deterministic Methods and Models in Reservoir Design	p. 58
3.5.2. Stochastic Problems in the Design of Reservoirs	p. 58
3.6. Guidelines for the Hydrological Dimensioning of Reservoirs	p. 59
Chapter 4 Principles and Concepts in the Hydrologic Design and Operation of Storage Reservoirs	p. 61
4.1. Utilization of Reliability-Based Techniques in the Hydrologic Design Process	p. 61
4.1.1. The Concept of Reservoir Efficiency Functions	p. 62
4.1.2. The Efficiency Function as a Basis for Storage Determination	p. 65
4.1.3. General Types of Reliability Parameters vs. Reservoir Efficiency Functions	p. 68
4.1.4. Storage Allocation in Multipurpose Reservoirs	p. 71
4.2. Topographical Characteristic of the Reservoir	p. 72
4.3. Modeling Methodology for the Systems Simulation of Reservoir Design Problems	p. 75
4.3.1. A Flood Storage Submodel	p. 80
4.4. Optimal Release Policies in the Operation of Multipurpose Reservoirs	p. 81
4.4.1. Stochastic Approach to Establishing an Optimal Release Policy	p. 82
4.5. The Value of Hydrologic Information in the Management of Reservoirs	p. 83
Chapter 5 Systems Approach in the Hydrologic Design and Operation of Storage Reservoirs	p. 85
5.1. Hydrologic Models in Water Resource Systems	p. 85
5.1.1. Time Series Models in Hydrologic Modeling	p. 88
5.1.2. Modeling Techniques	p. 89
5.2. Design of Reservoir Storage-Capacity with Inadequate Hydrologic Data	p. 90
5.2.1. The Need for Synthetic Data: Stochastic Generation of Synthetic Data and Flow Generation Strategies	p. 91
5.2.2. Multivariate Stochastic Models	p. 92
5.3. Evolution and Philosophy of Stochastic Simulation in Reservoir Systems Modeling and Design	p. 93
5.4. Deterministic-Stochastic Hybrid Models	p. 95
5.5. Risk and Uncertainty in Reservoir Design	p. 95
5.5.1. Model Verification and Performance	p. 96
5.5.2. Reservoir Performance Reliability	p. 97
5.5.3. Uncertainty Assessment via Sensitivity Analysis	p. 99
5.6. The Hydro-Economics of Reservoir Design	p. 100
5.6.1. Economic Concepts in Reservoir Planning	p. 100
5.6.2. Benefit-Cost and Cost-Effectiveness Analyses versus Optimal Design from Marginal Analysis	p. 101
5.7. Optimization Techniques as a Design Tool for Water Resource Systems	p. 102
5.7.1. The Optimization Problem	p. 102
5.7.2. Solution Techniques for the Optimization Problem	p. 103
5.7.3. Multiobjective Optimization in Reservoir Design	p. 104
5.7.4. The Net-Benefit Function Under Optimality Conditions	p. 105
5.8. Optimization Under Uncertainty and Risk	p. 106
Chapter 6 Hydrologic Analysis of Flood Flows	p. 109
6.1. Design Flood Determination	p. 109
6.1.1. The Selection of an Acceptable Risk Level	p. 110
6.1.2. The Calculation of the Risk of Overtopping	p. 111
6.1.3. Hydro-Economic Impact Analysis	p. 112
6.1.4. Modeling the Flood Flows	p. 113
6.2. The Probability of Occurrence of Flood Flows	p. 115
6.2.1. Estimation of the Probability Distribution Function of the Maximum Flood Flows for Large Rivers	p. 116
6.2.2. Estimation of the Probability Distribution Function of the Maximum Flood Flows for Small Rivers	p. 118
6.2.3. Estimation of the Probability Distribution Function of Maximum Floods in the Case of Medium-sized Rivers	p. 120
6.3. Estimation of Flood Flows Using Limited Data	p. 122
6.4. Estimation of Flood Attenuation by Reservoirs	p. 122
Chapter 7 Methods of Approach for Designing Optimal Storage Capacities and Operational Strategies for Multireservoir Systems	p. 125
7.1. A Review and Classification of Reservoir Capacity-Yield Estimation Procedures	p. 125
7.2. Critical Period Techniques	p. 126
7.2.1. Reservoir Capacity-Yield Estimation by Mass-curve Procedure	p. 127
7.3. Probability Matrix Methods	p. 129
7.3.1. Basic Principles of Reservoir Sizing Using Probabilistic Methods	p. 130
7.4. Reservoir Storage Requirements from Stochastic Data	p. 131
7.4.1. Basic Elements of Stocahstically-Generated Data	p. 132
7.5. Choosing Between Deterministic vs. Probabilistic vs. Simulation Methods	p. 137
Chapter 8 Determination of the Optimal Reservoir Storage Capacity and Operational Parameters for a River Dam	p. 139
8.1. Screening Models for Multireservoir Systems Design	p. 140
8.1.1. A Cost-Efficient Reservoir Capacity Design in Multireservoir Systems	p. 141
8.2. Reservoir Network Analyses for Model Development	p. 142
8.3. Formulation of the Reservoir Model and Modeling Methodology	p. 146
8.3.1. Using Monte Carlo Techniques in the Optimal Design of Reservoir Systems	p. 151
8.4. A Multisite Multiseason Flow Generation Strategy	p. 151
8.4.1. The Multivariate Autoregressive AR(1) Model for the Multisite Annual Generation Scheme	p. 152
8.4.2. The Disaggregation of Annual Streamflow Data	p. 156
8.4.3. Implementation of the Flow Generation Algorithm	p. 157
8.5. Storage-Capacity Allocation to Reservoir Sites	p. 157
8.5.1. Determination of the Reservoir Sizing Factors	p. 158
8.5.2. Incorporating a Reliability Measure	p. 159
8.5.3. Matrix of 'Disaggregated' Water Demands	p. 160
8.5.4. Matrix of Storage Volumes	p. 162
8.6. Cost-Efficient Capacity Allocations in the Design of Multireservoir Systems	p. 163
8.7. An Optimal Solution for the Multireservoir System Design	p. 165
8.7.1. The Overall Model Implementation Process	p. 166
8.8. Optimal Storage Capacity Decisions for Multireservoir Systems	p. 167
Chapter 9 Hydrological Sizing of Reservoirs for Flood Protection	p. 169
9.1. Determination of the Characteristic Hydrograph	p. 169
9.2. Spillway and Sluice Gate Considerations in the Design and Operation of Flood Retention Reservoirs	p. 170
9.2.1. The Case for a Regulated Sluice	p. 171
9.2.2. The Case for a Closed Sluice	p. 174
9.2.3. The Case for an Opened Sluice	p. 174
9.2.4. Comparison of the Dimensioning Methods	p. 177
9.3. Approximate Evaluation of the Efficiency Function	p. 179
9.4. Emergency Flood Storage	p. 182
9.4.1. Impacts of Emergency Storage in the River System	p. 183
9.5. Design and Operation of an Emergency Flood Control Program	p. 184
Chapter 10 Application of the Moran Model in Reservoir Storage Design	p. 187
10.1. The Moran Model	p. 187
10.2. A Proposed Mathematical Model	p. 190
10.2.1. Determination of the Transition Probabilities	p. 192
10.2.2. Model Application - An Example	p. 201
10.3. A Probabilistic Model for the Determination of the Reservoir Efficiency Function	p. 204
10.3.1. The Basic Hypotheses	p. 204
10.3.2. The Basic Relationships	p. 205
10.3.3. Determination of the Transition Probability Matrix	p. 206
10.3.4. Determination of the 'Behavior Function'	p. 207
10.4. Concluding Remarks	p. 208
List of References and Bibliography	p. 209
Literature Cited	p. 209
Additional Suggested Literature	p. 217
Index	p. 221

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