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Summary
Summary
Written by a group of academics and practitioners, this guide is for construction practitioners having to manage real projects. It shows how the risk management process improves decision making in conditions of uncertainty.
This new edition includes the input of the Turnbull report, as well as to introduce the concept of corporate, strategic business, and project level risk.
The authors cover:
* a description of risk management and decision making in the context of a construction project
* the human dimension
* tools and techniques available to the risk analyst
* the problems of procurement and finance
* the practical application of risk analysis, including the principles of risk modelling and simulation, together wit case studies.
A thorough understanding of these concepts will provide the project manager with the basis for effective decision making.
From the reviews of the first edition:
'This book should be compulsory reading for all concerned with the management of risk in construction - whether academics or practitioners.'
Chartered Surveyor Monthly
'A valuable addition to the literature ... which helps condense, simplify and provide practical advice on how to implement risk management on construction projects.'
Author Notes
Nigel Smith is Professor of Transport Infrastructure & Project Management at the School of Civil Engineering, University of Leeds.
Tony Merna is a lecturer in Civil & Construction Engineering, School of Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering., University of Manchester.
Paul Jobling is a Senior Professional Associate and Project Director Risk Management at Parsons Brinckerhoff.
Table of Contents
Preface | p. ix |
Authors Biographies | p. x |
Acknowledgements | p. xii |
1 Projects and Risk | p. 1 |
1.1 Construction projects | p. 1 |
1.2 Decision making | p. 2 |
1.3 Risk management strategy | p. 5 |
1.4 Project planning | p. 6 |
1.5 Summary | p. 7 |
2 The Project Environment | p. 9 |
2.1 Projects | p. 9 |
2.2 The project constitution | p. 11 |
2.3 Project organisation | p. 13 |
2.4 Project phases | p. 15 |
2.5 Effect of project phase on risk | p. 18 |
2.6 Project appraisal | p. 20 |
2.7 Summary | p. 22 |
3 Understanding the Human Aspects | p. 24 |
3.1 Risk management - people | p. 25 |
3.2 Risk management - organisations | p. 26 |
3.3 The risk management process | p. 27 |
3.4 Some guidelines to the risk management process | p. 28 |
3.5 The risk workshop | p. 30 |
3.6 Communication | p. 33 |
3.7 Summary | p. 34 |
4 Risk and Value Management | p. 36 |
4.1 Introduction | p. 36 |
4.2 Approaches to the management of risk | p. 37 |
4.3 The standard risk management model | p. 40 |
4.4 Applying risk and value management | p. 41 |
4.5 Value management processes | p. 43 |
4.6 Understanding the project risk | p. 44 |
4.7 Applying value and risk management | p. 52 |
4.8 Iteration of the process | p. 54 |
4.9 Summary | p. 55 |
5 Qualitative Methods and Soft Systems Methodology | p. 57 |
5.1 Qualitative risk assessment | p. 57 |
5.2 Review of project programmes and budgets | p. 57 |
5.3 The risk log | p. 60 |
5.4 Using a risk log to formulate risk management strategy | p. 62 |
5.5 Qualitative methods | p. 64 |
5.6 Soft systems methodology | p. 66 |
5.7 Case study: SSM in the use of the placement of construction projects | p. 68 |
5.8 Summary | p. 77 |
6 Quantitative Methods for Risk Analysis | p. 78 |
6.1 Sanction | p. 78 |
6.2 Project appraisal and selection | p. 79 |
6.3 Project evaluation | p. 82 |
6.4 Engineering risks | p. 84 |
6.5 Risk management | p. 87 |
6.6 Probabilistic analysis | p. 89 |
6.7 Response to risks | p. 92 |
6.8 Successful risk management | p. 93 |
6.9 Principles of contingency fund estimation | p. 94 |
7 The Contribution of Information Technology to Risk Modelling and Simulation | p. 102 |
7.1 Purpose of RMS | p. 103 |
7.2 When to use RMS | p. 103 |
7.3 Requirements of the analyst | p. 105 |
7.4 Modelling and simulation | p. 105 |
7.5 Modelling using RMS | p. 107 |
7.6 Data management | p. 108 |
7.7 Analytical mechanisms | p. 108 |
7.8 Classification of RMS | p. 110 |
7.9 Selection of RMS | p. 111 |
7.10 Modelling a project for risk management | p. 113 |
7.11 Data requirements for realistic modelling | p. 115 |
7.12 Choice of variable distribution | p. 117 |
7.13 Case study | p. 118 |
7.14 Case study simulations | p. 125 |
7.15 Analysis of the result | p. 128 |
7.16 Discussion of findings | p. 134 |
7.17 Summary | p. 134 |
8 Risk Allocation in the Contracting and Procurement Cycle | p. 136 |
8.1 Typical contracting and procurement processes | p. 136 |
8.2 Value planning case study | p. 140 |
8.3 Known and unknown risks in contracts | p. 142 |
8.4 Risk allocation strategies | p. 145 |
8.5 Risk allocation according to payment mechanism | p. 156 |
8.6 Contract award | p. 160 |
8.7 Summary | p. 163 |
9 Managing Financial Risks in Major Construction and PFI Projects | p. 164 |
9.1 Project financing | p. 164 |
9.2 Types of finance | p. 166 |
9.3 Appraisal and validity of financing projects | p. 171 |
9.4 Typical financial risks | p. 174 |
9.5 Promoter | p. 176 |
9.6 Financial risk in concession contracts | p. 177 |
9.7 Global and elemental risks in concession contracts | p. 180 |
9.8 Summary | p. 186 |
10 Risk Management at Corporate, Strategic Business and Project Levels | p. 187 |
10.1 Introduction | p. 187 |
10.2 Risk management | p. 188 |
10.3 The risk management process | p. 189 |
10.4 Benefits of risk management | p. 191 |
10.5 Recognising risks | p. 191 |
10.6 Why risk management is used | p. 193 |
10.7 Model for risk management at corporate, strategic business and project levels | p. 194 |
10.8 Summary | p. 200 |
11 Case Studies | p. 202 |
11.1 Introduction | p. 202 |
11.2 Case study - cruise ship design and fabrication programme risk assessment | p. 203 |
11.3 Risk identification | p. 204 |
11.4 The Channel Tunnel Rail Link (CTRL) | p. 208 |
11.5 Brief history of the CTRL | p. 209 |
11.6 The risk management process | p. 212 |
11.7 Risk assessment, analysis and response | p. 219 |
11.8 Summary of the preliminary schedule risk analysis results | p. 225 |
12 Guidance in Practical Risk Management | p. 229 |
12.1 Decision making | p. 229 |
12.2 Preparation for risk management | p. 230 |
12.3 Risk identification | p. 232 |
12.4 Risk analysis | p. 232 |
12.5 Risk outputs | p. 233 |
12.6 Models | p. 237 |
12.7 Communication | p. 238 |
12.8 Summary | p. 238 |
Index | p. 240 |