Available:*
Library | Item Barcode | Call Number | Material Type | Item Category 1 | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Searching... | 30000005016518 | HD30.27 F67 1998 | Open Access Book | Book | Searching... |
On Order
Summary
Summary
This book provides research on the human element in forecasting. It focuses on how we can improve our ability to accurately forecast.
Author Notes
George Wright has held Faculty positions at LBS and Leeds Business School and is currently at Strathclyde Graduate School of Business, where he consults to major blue-chip clients such as Philips and IBM. He has conducted extensive research into the role of judgement in forecasting and decision making, with particular emphasis on the simplification strategies of managers which lead to poor decisions. He has published both academic and trade books on forecasting and decision making, and contributed to various journals within the field. He founded the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making with Wiley in 1988 and is Associate Editor of the Wiley Journal of Forecasting and the International Journal of Forecasting .
Paul Goodwin , PhD, is Professor Emeritus at University of Bath, Bath, UK, where he teaches courses on Management Science, business forecasting, and decision analysis. He regularly conducts workshops at forecasting events around the world. A Fellow of the International Institute of Forecasters, he is a well-known keynote speaker at SAS.
Table of Contents
| Judgment: Its Role and Value for StrategyS. Makridakis and A. Gaba |
| Scenario Planning: Scaffolding Disorganized Ideas about the FutureK. van der Heijden |
| Judgmental Forecasting and the Use of Available InformationM. O'Connor and M. Lawrence |
| Enhancing Judgmental Sales Forecasting: The Role of Laboratory ResearchP. Goodwin |
| Heuristics and Biases in Judgmental ForecastingF. Bolger and N. Harvey |
| Financial Forecasting with JudgmentD. Onkal-Atay |
| Reasoning with Category Knowledge in Probability Forecasting: Typicality and Perceived Variability EffectsG. Browne and S. Curley |
| The Use of Structured Groups to Improve Judgmental ForecastingG. Rowe |
| How Bad Is Human Judgment?P. Ayton |
| Integration of Statistical Methods and Judgment for Time Series Forecasting: Principles from Empirical ResearchJ. Armstrong and F. Collopy |
| Index |
