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Summary
Summary
Current perspectives on the Phillips curve, a core macroeconomic concept that treats the relationship between inflation and unemployment.
In 1958, economist A. W. Phillips published an article describing what he observed to be the inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment; subsequently, the "Phillips curve" became a central concept in macroeconomic analysis and policymaking. But today's Phillips curve is not the same as the original one from fifty years ago; the economy, our understanding of price setting behavior, the determinants of inflation, and the role of monetary policy have evolved significantly since then. In this book, some of the top economists working today reexamine the theoretical and empirical validity of the Phillips curve in its more recent specifications. The contributors consider such questions as what economists have learned about price and wage setting and inflation expectations that would improve the way we use and formulate the Phillips curve, what the Phillips curve approach can teach us about inflation dynamics, and how these lessons can be applied to improving the conduct of monetary policy.
Contributors
Lawrence Ball, Ben Bernanke, Oliver Blanchard, V. V. Chari, William T. Dickens, Stanley Fischer, Jeff Fuhrer, Jordi Gali, Michael T. Kiley, Robert G. King, Donald L. Kohn, Yolanda K. Kodrzycki, Jane Sneddon Little, Bartisz Mackowiak, N. Gregory Mankiw, Virgiliu Midrigan, Giovanni P. Olivei, Athanasios Orphanides, Adrian R. Pagan, Christopher A. Pissarides, Lucrezia Reichlin, Paul A. Samuelson, Christopher A. Sims, Frank R. Smets, Robert M. Solow, Jürgen Stark, James H. Stock, Lars E. O. Svensson, John B. Taylor, Mark W. Watson
Author Notes
Jeff Fuhrer, Jane Little, Yolanda Kodrzycki, and Giovanni Olivei are economists in the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
Table of Contents
Acknowledgments | p. ix |
Foreword | p. xi |
1 The Phillips Curve in Historical Context | p. 1 |
2 Fifty Years of the Phillips Curve | p. 69 |
A Dialog on What We Have LearnedRobert M. Solow and John B. Taylor and N. Gregory Mankiw | |
3 Forecasting Inflation | p. 99 |
Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts | p. 101 |
Comments | p. 187 |
Comments | p. 195 |
4 The Labor Market and the Phillips Curve | p. 205 |
A New Method for Estimating Time Variation in the NAIRU | p. 207 |
Comments | p. 231 |
Comments | p. 237 |
5 Inflation Expectations | p. 245 |
Inflation Expectations, Uncertainty, the Phillips Curve, and Monetary Policy | p. 247 |
Comments | p. 267 |
Comments | p. 281 |
6 Evidence on Price Determination | p. 289 |
Implications of Microeconomic Price Data for Macroeconomic Models | p. 291 |
Comments | p. 333 |
Comments | p. 351 |
7 Is the Phillips Curve Vertical in the Long Run? | p. 359 |
Hysteresis in Unemployment | p. 361 |
Comments | p. 383 |
Comments | p. 395 |
8 Lessons for Central Bankers: A Panel Discussion | p. 401 |
Israeli Monetary Policy and the Phillips Curve | p. 403 |
Lessons for Central Bankers from a Phillips Curve Framework | p. 415 |
The Phillips Curve and the European Central Bank | p. 427 |
Monetary Policy at the Riksbank and the Phillips Curve | p. 433 |
9 The Phillips Curve Going Forward | p. 445 |
What We Still Need to Learn | |
Outstanding Issues in the Analysis of Inflation | p. 447 |
Contributors | p. 457 |
Author Index | p. 473 |
Subject Index | p. 481 |