Structural performance : probability-based assessement

Title:

Personal Author:

Cremona, Christian

Publication Information:

London : ISTE ; Hoboken, N.J : Wiley, c2011

Physical Description:

xiii, 429 p. : ill. ; 24 cm.

ISBN:

9781848212367

Subject Term:

Structural analysis (Engineering) -- Statistical methods

Structural failures -- Risk assessment -- Statistical methods

Available:*

Library	Item Barcode	Call Number	Material Type	Item Category 1	Status
Searching... PSZ JB	30000010277507	TA640.2 C74 2011	Open Access Book	Book	Searching... Unknown

This book covers the development of efficient methods for the assessment and the management of civil structures is today a major challenge from economical, social and environmental aspects. Tools for handling uncertainties in loads, geometry, material properties, construction and operating conditions are nowadays essential.

Covers the key concepts across topics including probability theory and statistics, structural safety, performance-based assessment, modelling uncertainties and principles of decision theory.

Author Notes

Christian Cremona is in charge of the civil engineering and construction group in the direction for research and innovation in the French Ministry for Sustainable Development.

Preface	p. xi
Chapter 1 Concepts from Probability Theory and Statistics	p. 1
1.1 The role of probability in civil engineering	p. 1
1.2 Physical and statistical uncertainties	p. 2
1.3 Axiomatics	p. 3
1.3.1 Probabilities	p. 3
1.3.2 Axioms	p. 3
1.3.3 Consequences	p. 5
1.3.4 Conditional probabilities	p. 5
1.4 Random variables - distributions	p. 8
1.4.1 Definitions	p. 8
1.4.2 Sampling	p. 8
1.4.3 Probability density function	p. 10
1.4.4 Main descriptors of a random variable	p. 11
1.4.5 Joint variables	p. 15
1.4.6 Independent variables	p. 16
1.4.7 Correlation coefficient	p. 16
1.4.8 Functions of random variables	p. 18
1.4.9 Approximate moments	p. 20
1.5 Useful random variables	p. 21
1.5.1 Discrete variables	p. 21
1.5.2 Normal distribution	p. 25
1.5.3 Lognormal distribution	p. 26
1.5.4 Beta distribution	p. 28
1.5.5 Exponential distribution	p. 29
1.5.6 Gamma distribution	p. 30
1.5.7 tudent's t-distribution	p. 31
1.6 Limit theorems	p. 31
1.6.1 Law of large numbers	p. 32
1.6.2 Limit theorems	p. 35
1.7 Modeling random variables	p. 38
1.7.1 Point estimation	p. 39
1.7.2 Interval estimation	p. 43
1.7.3 Estimation of fractiles	p. 46
1.7.4 Estimation of the distribution	p. 48
1.8 Distribution of extremes	p. 51
1.9 Significance testing	p. 58
1.9.1 Type I and II errors	p. 60
1.9.2 Usual tests	p. 61
1.10 Bayesian analysis	p. 65
1.10.1 A priori and a posteriori distributions	p. 66
1.10.2 Updating estimators	p. 68
1.10.3 Bayesian networks	p. 70
1.11 Stochastic processes	p. 74
1.11.1 Basic principles	p. 74
1.11.2 Markovian chains	p. 75
1.11.3 State probability	p. 76
1.11.4 Time between stages	p. 78
Chapter 2 Structural Safety, Performance and Risk	p. 81
2.1 Introduction	p. 81
2.2 Safety and risk	p. 82
2.2.1 Concepts of safety	p. 82
2.2.2 Concept of risk related to a danger or threat	p. 83
2.2.3 Risk assessment	p. 84
2.2.4 Hazard	p. 85
2.3 Risk evaluation and acceptable risk	p. 87
2.3.1 Risk assessment	p. 87
2.3.2 Acceptable risk	p. 89
2.4 Risk-based management	p. 96
2.4.1 Strategies	p. 96
2.4.2 Risk analysis	p. 96
2.4.3 Legal point of view for a risk-based approach	p. 104
2.5 Examples of failure: bridges	p. 105
2.6 From safety to performance	p. 110
2.6.1 Functions of a structure	p. 110
2.6.2 Performance	p. 112
2.6.3 Evolution of structural functionality	p. 119
2.6.4 Consequences of performance losses	p. 121
2.6.5 Generalization of the concept of risk	p. 121
2.7 Human errors	p. 122
Chapter 3 Performance-based Assessment	p. 125
3.1 Analysis methods and structural safety	p. 125
3.1.1 Allowable stress principle	p. 128
3.1.2 Limit states and partial factors	p. 128
3.1.3 Probability-based approach	p. 132
3.2 Safety and performance principles	p. 134
3.2.1 New structures	p. 135
3.2.2 Existing structures	p. 135
3.3 Invariant measures	p. 136
3.4 Reliability theory	p. 138
3.4.1 Basic problem	p. 138
3.4.2 Convolution integral	p. 139
3.4.3 Normal variables	p. 140
3.4.4 Geometric expression of the reliability index	p. 142
3.4.5 Joint distribution representation	p. 145
3.4.6 Limit state with more than two uncorrelated normal variables	p. 145
3.4.7 Limit state with correlated variables	p. 148
3.5 General formulation	p. 150
3.5.1 Failure component-failure mode	p. 150
3.5.2 Safety margins - limit state functions	p. 150
3.5.3 Calculation methods	p. 151
3.5.4 Basler-Cornell index	p. 152
3.5.5 Hasofer-Lind index	p. 158
3.5.6 Rackwitz-Fiessler algorithm	p. 161
3.5.7 Isoprobability transformations	p. 162
3.5.8 Calculation of the failure probability	p. 168
3.5.9 Monte-Carlo methods	p. 172
3.5.10 Response surfaces	p. 176
3.5.11 Sensitivity measures	p. 183
3.6 System reliability	p. 187
3.6.1 Mathematical concepts	p. 190
3.6.2 Calculation of the system probability of failure	p. 199
3.6.3 Robustness and vulnerability	p. 205
3.7 Determination of collapse/failure mechanisms	p. 208
3.7.1 Generation of safety margins for truss structures	p. 208
3.7.2 P-unzipping method	p. 213
3.8 Calibration of partial factors	p. 217
3.9 Nature of a probabilistic calculation	p. 224
3.10 Failure probabilities and acceptable risks	p. 225
3.10.1 Acceptable failure probabilities	p. 225
3.10.2 Concept of acceptable risk	p. 230
3.10.3 Remarks	p. 233
Chapter 4 Structural Assessment of Existing Structures	p. 235
4.1 Introduction	p. 235
4.2 Assessment rules	p. 236
4.3 Limits when using design rules	p. 236
4.4 Main stages in structural assessment	p. 237
4.5 Structural safety assessment	p. 239
4.5.1 Basic concept	p. 240
4.5.2 First approach	p. 240
4.5.3 Second approach	p. 242
4.5.4 Third approach	p. 244
4.5.5 Fourth approach	p. 250
4.5.6 Implementing rating factors	p. 258
4.6 General remarks on the methods	p. 260
Chapter 5 Specificities of Existing Structures	p. 261
5.1 Loads	p. 261
5.1.1 Introduction	p. 261
5.1.2 Stochastic processes	p. 264
5.1.3 Spatial variability	p. 285
5.1.4 Load combinations	p. 286
5.1.5 Permanent loads	p. 288
5.1.6 Live loads	p. 291
5.1.7 Environmental loads	p. 298
5.1.8 Exceptional loads	p. 325
5.2 Resistance	p. 331
5.2.1 Material properties and uncertainties	p. 332
5.2.2 Properties of reinforcing and prestressing steel	p. 334
5.2.3 properties of structural steel	p. 340
5.2.4 Properties of concrete	p. 341
5.3 Geometric variability	p. 348
5.4 Scale effects	p. 351
Chapter 6 Principles of Decision Theory	p. 355
6.1 Introduction	p. 355
6.2 The decision model	p. 356
6.2.1 Decision tree	p. 356
6.2.2 Decision criterion	p. 360
6.2.3 Terminal decision analysis	p. 361
6.2.4 Information value	p. 363
6.3 Controls and inspections	p. 364
6.3.1 Detection probability: a discrete case	p. 367
6.3.2. Detection probability: a continuous case	p. 375
6.3.3 Load tests	p. 381
6.4 Maintenance optimization	p. 384
6.4.1 Identification of degradations and failure modes	p. 387
6.4.2 Decision process and RBI analysis	p. 389
6.4.3 Maintenance types	p. 390
6.5 Life cycle cost analysis	p. 391
6.5.1 Discount calculations	p. 392
6.5.2 Discount rate	p. 394
6.5.3 Some results from discounting analysis	p. 396
6.5.4 Condition, working lifetime and life cycles	p. 398
6.6 Maintenance strategies	p. 403
6.6.1 Corrective maintenance	p. 404
6.6.2 Systematic maintenance	p. 405
6.6.3 Conditional maintenance	p. 406
Bibliography	p. 413
Index	p. 423

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Author Notes

Table of Contents