Excerpts

Preface to the 9th Edition Warp speed universe. Warp speed financial markets. The 8th Edition of this classic book appeared when it seemed that the millennium and paradise had been achieved and that, like McKay's tulipomania, the price of stocks would rise forever and men would rush from the world over and pay whatever price was asked for what-was-its-name.com, Internet.groceries, or ihype.com or icon.com or gotcha.com. And, feature this, Dow 36000. The bubble was just in the process of bursting, of course. Before it burst fabulous fortunes were made by roller blader and scooter tycoons and by young geeks with nothing but chutzpah and a laptop. One of my favorite stories is of the young entrepreneur who said "Why don't I deserve it (the $100MM he made in the IPO)? I've devoted three years of my life to this project." (Now dead.) Now many of those people are in prison and the hangover lingers on. Lying, cheating, and stealing on all sides. From Enron to Arthur Anderson. Billions, if not trillions into a black hole. As all this developed I warned of the impending collapse in the John Magee Investment Letters on the web. There was nothing magic or brilliant about seeing what was going on. Perspective and perception came from applying the lessons taught in this book by Edwards and Magee. Like Benedict XVI (in a different area) I am a humble worker in their vineyard. I press on attempting to modernize (where necessary) and extend their work, fit it to the modern situation and make it even more useful to current day traders and investors. In this ongoing labor of love I have been immeasurably assisted by my graduate students and colleagues at Golden Gate University in San Francisco. In constant interaction with them, I have been stimulated to see important aspects of Edwards and Magee's work and develop and emphasize these elements in my teaching and in this new edition. Specifically, both long-term and short-term traders will find important new material in this edition. In my graduate seminars I have seen the power of what Magee called the "Basing Points" procedure and so have extended the treatment of this material. My interest in and respect for Dow Theory have recently increased as the result of a paper done with Brian Brooker for the Market Technicians Association ("Dissecting Dow Theory"). Material from that paper will be found in this edition. Short-term traders and futures speculators will appreciate extensive new material on commodity trading. These traders have been entirely too influenced by mechanical numberdriven systems of recent years and need to restore perspective by mastering the material in this book. It was never the intent of this book to forecast or analyze current markets. Rather it's purpose was, and is, to learn from history and the past so as to be better able to deal with the present and the future. Current markets are AU3772_C000.fm Page 5 Tuesday, November 21, 2006 1:50 PM analyzed (and forecast?) at the John Magee website. Nonetheless, the very process of keeping current involves picturing issues and instruments in play. The major indices themselves in 2005 were in play, and gold, silver and oil. We don't know how they will pan out. But we can make an analysis with the data we have . For this is the situation the analyst is faced with every day. He doesn't know how it will turn out. But, by following the methods and principles taught in this book he can put himself on the right side of the probabilities. This is no idle remark. The power and effectiveness of classical chart analysis can be seen by examining how it performed in the past at critical times. At the John Magee Technical Analysis website the following comment was made in January 2000: Dow: The Dow can expect to find support at 10000 and is buyable, but in small commitments or portions of a portfolio or additions thereto. We expect to see it in a very large seesaw from 9-12000 for some time and would hedge at the high end and increase commitments and lift hedges on oversold conditions at the low end. In November 2000 the following comment was made: November 18, 2000 There is really only one chart pattern of significance in these markets, and that is the big one, more than 12 months long now, and the pattern is a big serpent, whipping back and forth, and as Shakespeare said, signifying nothing. Nothing that is but more of the same. How will we know when it signifies something? Well we won't really know till we know, but we'll let you know when we know. So we would continue to pick likely shorts and employ short term trading strategies for traders, and hedge at interim tops and lift the hedges at bottoms. Based on the chart picture and last week's anemic behavior we would not trade for bounces in the NASDAQ. If anything it is a short, but a risky one. These past letters, dramatically illustrating the effectiveness of the methods of this book, may be found online through links at the address specified below. Your editor, personally, is not a genius for having made these analyses. It is the method that is to credit, and any number of my graduate students can make the same analyses, as can any alert chart analyst. The reader should not skip the prefatory material to the 8th Edition. The same practices outlined there have been followed in this edition. Magee said the reader should not skim through this book and put it on his library shelf. Instead it should be read and reread and constantly referred to. And so the reader should, yes, so he should. Richard Russell, the dean of Dow Theory Analysts, has reportedly said that the price of the Dow and the price of gold will cross in coming years. He has also remarked that the S&P appears to evince a 10-year head-andshoulders pattern. Robert Prechter believes we are at the crest of the tidal wave and the tsunami cometh. Dow 36000. Dow 3000. This book contains the best tools to cope with whatever the future holds. W.H.C. Bassetti San Francisco, California A Special Note Concerning Resources on the Web In the age of instant and easy (and free) access to information on the Internet it would be foolish to ignore the opportunities available to interact with the material of this book. So the reader will find numerous free materials that augment the book at www.edwards-magee.com/nf05/ninthedition.html. For example, when the reader learns in Chapter 28 of the Basing Points Procedure he will be able to go to the website and print out a PDF of material that he can place beside Figure 210.1 for instant and easy cross reference, instead of having to turn pages constantly back and forth from the chart to the keys and commentary, or having to bend the book into pretzels at a copy machine. In general, wherever references are made in the text to the website it is for this purpose, to give the reader easy and flexible usage of the material. And, likewise, at this address the reader will find links to past letters that show how the method functioned in real time in real markets. A Special Note about Dow Theory Senator Everett Dirkson said one time that trying to get U.S. Senators herded together and moving in one direction was like trying to transport bull frogs in a wheelbarrow. Trying to synchronize the signals of the various Dow Theory analysts is a similarly challenging proposition. No Ayatollah exists to issue the final fatwa as to whether the signal is valid. Always one to abhor a vacuum I have organized a committee at Golden Gate University to evaluate pronouncements of signals and opine as to whether the signals are valid. This committee may be contacted at the addresses found in Resources and at cbassetti@ggu.edu. Excerpted from Technical Analysis of Stock Trends by Robert D. Edwards, John Magee, W. H. C. Bassetti All rights reserved by the original copyright owners. Excerpts are provided for display purposes only and may not be reproduced, reprinted or distributed without the written permission of the publisher.