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Title:
Introduction to simulation and risk analysis
Publication Information:
Upper Saddle River, N.J. : Prentice Hall, 1998
ISBN:
9780136216087
General Note:
Accompanies text with the same tittle ( HD30.213 E92 1998)
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Summary

Summary

Unlike most software packages for simulation -- which are generally oriented toward engineering applications, are often intimidating to use, and are not suitable for applications of risk analysis -- this text provides an introduction to the concepts, methodologies, and applications of simulation in business, specifically. Easy-to-use and apply, it uses spreadsheets as the principal means to illustrate simulation models and computational issues -- providing students with a solid foundation for learning to use the more advanced commercially available simulation software. The value of simulation is demonstrated through the use of real applications throughout.*Uses Microsoft Excel throughout - although most models can easily be translated into other spreadsheet formats*Provides cell formulas and detailed explanations for each spreadsheet model*Contains numerous chapter-end Questions and Problems for review of important concepts, practice in working with and extending models, and applying the concepts to new situations


Table of Contents

Prefacep. xiii
Part 1 Simulation Fundamentals
Chapter 1 Introduction to Simulationp. 1
Chapter 2 Simulation Using Excelp. 21
Chapter 3 Probability and Statistics in Simulationp. 63
Part 2 Simulation in Risk Analysis
Chapter 4 Risk Analysis Using Crystal Ballp. 112
Chapter 5 Applications of Risk Analysisp. 152
Part 3 Systems Simulation
Chapter 6 Building System Simulation Modelsp. 199
Chapter 7 Output Analysis and Experimentation for Systems Simulationp. 249
Chapter 8 Systems Simulation Using ProcessModelp. 271
Chapter 9 Applications of Systems Simulationp. 307
Part 4 Extensions of Simulation
Chapter 10 Simulation in Forecasting and Optimizationp. 335
Appendix A Normal Distributionp. 370
Appendix B t Distributionp. 371
Appendix C Chi-Square Limitsp. 372
Appendix D Kolmogorov-Smirnov Limitsp. 373
Bibiographyp. 374
Indexp. 387
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