Modelling and simulations for analyzing global events

Modeling and Simulation for Analyzing Global Events provides an orientation to the theory and application of modeling and simulation techniques in social science disciplines. This book guides readers in developing quantitative and numeric representations of real-world events based on qualitative analysis. With an emphasis on gathering and mapping empirical data, the authors detail the steps needed for accurately analyzing global events and outline the selection and construction of the best model for understanding the event¿s data.

Providing a theoretical foundation while also illustrating modern examples, the book contains three parts:

Advancing Global Studies --introduces the what, when, and why of modeling and simulation and also explores its brief history, various uses, and some of the advantages and disadvantages of modeling and simulation in problem solving. In addition, the differences in qualitative and quantitative research methods, mapping data, and conducting model validation are also discussed. Modeling Paradigms --examines various methods of modeling including system dynamics, agent-based modeling, social network modeling, and game theory. This section also explores the theory and construction of these modeling paradigms, the fundamentals for their application, and various contexts for their use. Modeling Global Events --applies the modeling paradigms to four real-world events that are representative of several fundamental areas of social science studies: internal commotion within an anarchic state, a multi-layered study of the Solidarity movement in Poland, uni-lateral military intervention, and the issue of compellence and deterrence during a national security crisis.

Modeling and Simulation for Analyzing Global Events is an excellent book for statistics, engineering, computer science, economics, and social sciences courses on modeling and simulation at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also an insightful reference for professionals who would like to develop modeling and simulation skills for analyzing and communicating human behavior observed in real-world events and complex global case studies.

Author Notes

JOHN A. SOKOLOWSKI, PhD , is Research Professor and Director of Research at the Virginia Modeling, Analysis and Simulation Center at Old Dominion University. He has written numerous journal articles on the use of modeling and simulation techniques in the fields of engineering, computer science, and human behavior representation. Dr. Sokolowski is the coeditor of Principles of Modeling and Simulation: A Multidisciplinary Approach , also published by Wiley.

CATHERINE M. BANKS, PhD , is Research Assistant Professor at the Virginia Modeling, Analysis and Simulation Center at Old Dominion University. She currently focuses her research on modeling states and their varied histories of revolution and insurgency; political economy and state volatility; and climate change and population dynamics. Dr. Banks is the coeditor of Principles of Modeling and Simulation: A Multidisciplinary Approach , also published by Wiley.

Preface	p. xi
I Principles of modeling and Simulation: Advancing Global Studies	p. 1
1 Modeling and Simulation: What, When, and Why	p. 3
Introduction	p. 3
An Overview of Modeling and Simulation	p. 4
A Brief History of Modeling and Simulation	p. 8
Why Use Modeling and Simulation	p. 16
Conclusions	p. 20
Key Terms	p. 21
References	p. 21
Further Reading	p. 22
2 Research Methodologies for Modeling Global Events	p. 23
Introduction	p. 23
Global Events and the Social Sciences	p. 25
Qualitative and Quantitative Research	p. 28
Modeling and Simulation of Global Events	p. 32
Mapping Data: A Suggested Methodology	p. 36
Model Validation	p. 39
Conclusions	p. 40
Key Terms	p. 41
References	p. 41
II Modeling Paradigms	p. 43
3 System Dynamics	p. 45
Introduction	p. 45
Dynamic System Behavior	p. 46
Building Blocks of System Dynamics Models	p. 51
Conclusions	p. 61
Key Terms	p. 61
References	p. 61
4 Agent-Based Modeling and Social Networks	p. 63
Introduction	p. 63
Agent-Based Models: Description and Definition	p. 64
Social Networks	p. 76
Building an Agent-Based Model	p. 77
Conclusions	p. 78
Key Terms	p. 78
References	p. 79
5 Game Theory	p. 81
Introduction	p. 81
Fundamentals of Game Theory	p. 81
Types of Games	p. 86
Conclusions	p. 95
Key Terms	p. 95
References	p. 96
III Modeling Global Events	p. 97
6 Case Study: Colombia-A Country Study of Insurgency	p. 99
Introduction	p. 99
Developing the Research Question and Methodology	p. 101
Background: Qualitative Research	p. 102
Mapping Qualitative to Quantitative	p. 108
System Dynamics	p. 115
Responding to the Research Question	p. 117
Key Terms	p. 120
References	p. 120
Case Study Bibliography	p. 120
7 Case Study: The Polish Solidarity Movement-Laying the Foundation for the Collapse of Soviet Communism	p. 123
Introduction	p. 123
Developing the Research Question and Methodology	p. 125
Background: Qualitative Research	p. 126
Measuring Agents and Environments: Stimuli and Actions	p. 144
Modeling Human Behavior with Agents	p. 147
Responding to the Research Question	p. 150
Conclusions	p. 151
Key Terms	p. 152
References	p. 152
Case Study Bibliography	p. 153
8 Case Study: Vietnam-Johnson's War, 1963-1965	p. 155
Introduction	p. 155
Developing the Research Question and Methodology	p. 157
Background: Qualitative Research	p. 158
Analyzing the Social Network Structures	p. 165
Social Network Aspects of Human Behavior Modeling	p. 169
Agent-Based Model Development	p. 169
Responding to the Research Question	p. 172
Key Terms	p. 173
References	p. 174
Case Study Bibliography	p. 174
9 Case Study: Cuban Missile Crisis-A National Security Emergency	p. 177
Introduction	p. 177
Developing the Research Question and Methodology	p. 179
Background: Qualitative Research	p. 180
Evaluating Behaviors	p. 188
Game Theory	p. 192
Responding to the Research Question	p. 197
Key Terms	p. 199
References	p. 199
Case Study Bibliography	p. 200
Index	p. 203

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