Cover image for Adaptive business intelligence
Title:
Adaptive business intelligence
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Publication Information:
Berlin : Springer, 2007
ISBN:
9783540329282

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30000010119030 HD30.2 M52 2007 Open Access Book Book
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30000010155765 HD30.2 M52 2007 Open Access Book Book
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Summary

Summary

In the modern information era, managers must recognize the competitive opportunities represented by decision-support tools. Adaptive business intelligence systems combine prediction and optimization techniques to assist decision makers in complex, rapidly changing environments. These systems address the fundamental questions: What is likely to happen in the future? And what is the best decision right now? Adaptive Business Intelligence includes elements of data mining, predictive modeling, forecasting, optimization, and adaptability.

The authors have considerable academic research backgrounds in artificial intelligence and related fields, combined with years of practical consulting experience in businesses and industries worldwide. In this book they explain the science and application of numerous prediction and optimization techniques, as well as how these concepts can be used to develop adaptive systems. The techniques covered include linear regression, time-series forecasting, decision trees and tables, artificial neural networks, genetic programming, fuzzy systems, genetic algorithms, simulated annealing, tabu search, ant systems, and agent-based modeling.

This book is suitable for business and IT managers who make decisions in complex industrial and service environments, nonspecialists who want to understand the science behind better predictions and decisions, and students and researchers who need a quick introduction to this field.


Table of Contents

Part I Complex Business Problems
1 Introductionp. 3
2 Characteristics of Complex Business Problemsp. 9
2.1 Number of Possible Solutionsp. 10
2.2 Time-Changing Environmentp. 12
2.3 Problem-Specific Constraintsp. 13
2.4 Multi-objective Problemsp. 14
2.5 Modeling the Problemp. 16
2.6 A Real-World Examplep. 19
3 An Extended Example: Car Distributionp. 25
3.1 Basic Terminologyp. 25
3.2 Off-lease Carsp. 27
3.3 The Problemp. 28
3.4 Transportationp. 30
3.5 Volume Effectp. 32
3.6 Price Depreciation and Inventoryp. 33
3.7 Dynamic Market Changesp. 33
3.8 The Solutionp. 34
4 Adaptive Business Intelligencep. 37
4.1 Data Miningp. 38
4.2 Predictionp. 41
4.3 Optimizationp. 43
4.4 Adaptabilityp. 44
4.5 The Structure of an Adaptive Business Intelligence Systemp. 45
Part II Prediction and Optimization
5 Prediction Methods and Modelsp. 49
5.1 Data Preparationp. 51
5.2 Different Prediction Methodsp. 56
5.2.1 Mathematical Methodsp. 56
5.2.2 Distance Methodsp. 62
5.2.3 Logic Methodsp. 64
5.2.4 Modern Heuristic Methodsp. 68
5.2.5 Additional Considerationsp. 69
5.3 Evaluation of Modelsp. 69
5.4 Recommended Readingp. 74
6 Modern Optimization Techniquesp. 75
6.1 Overviewp. 75
6.2 Local Optimization Techniquesp. 82
6.3 Stochastic Hill Climberp. 87
6.4 Simulated Annealingp. 90
6.5 Tabu Searchp. 96
6.6 Evolutionary Algorithmsp. 101
6.7 Constraint Handlingp. 108
6.8 Additional Issuesp. 112
6.9 Recommended Readingp. 114
7 Fuzzy Logicp. 117
7.1 Overviewp. 119
7.2 Fuzzifierp. 119
7.3 Inference Systemp. 123
7.4 Defuzzifierp. 127
7.5 Tuning the Membership Functions and Rule Basep. 128
7.6 Recommended Readingp. 129
8 Artificial Neural Networksp. 131
8.1 Overviewp. 132
8.2 Node Input and Outputp. 134
8.3 Different Types of Networksp. 136
8.3.1 Feed-Forward Neural Networksp. 137
8.3.2 Recurrent Neural Networksp. 140
8.4 Learning Methodsp. 142
8.4.1 Supervised Learningp. 142
8.4.2 Unsupervised Learningp. 146
8.5 Data Representationp. 147
8.6 Recommended Readingp. 148
9 Other Methods and Techniquesp. 151
9.1 Genetic Programmingp. 151
9.2 Ant Systems and Swarm Intelligencep. 158
9.3 Agent-Based Modelingp. 163
9.4 Co-evolutionp. 169
9.5 Recommended Readingp. 173
Part III Adaptive Business Intelligence
10 Hybrid Systems and Adaptabilityp. 177
10.1 Hybrid Systems for Predictionp. 178
10.2 Hybrid Systems for Optimizationp. 183
10.3 Adaptabilityp. 187
11 Car Distribution Systemp. 191
11.1 Overviewp. 192
11.2 Graphical User Interfacep. 194
11.2.1 Constraint Handlingp. 195
11.2.2 Reportingp. 201
11.3 Prediction Modulep. 203
11.4 Optimization Modulep. 206
11.5 Adaptability Modulep. 208
11.6 Validationp. 211
12 Applying Adaptive Business Intelligencep. 215
12.1 Marketing Campaignsp. 215
12.2 Manufacturingp. 221
12.3 Investment Strategiesp. 224
12.4 Emergency Response Servicesp. 228
12.5 Credit Card Fraudp. 232
13 Conclusionp. 239
Indexp. 243