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Summary
Summary
Alan Greenspan has delivered more than 30 speeches, and the vast majority of those speeches have sent the stock market tumbling. This volume focuses on this phenomenon, and aims to shed light on the potent and puzzling relationship between Greenspan and the world's capital markets.
Author Notes
David B. Sicilia, Ph.D., is an experienced consultant, business historian, and author. He has received numerous awards and fellowships, including the Charles Warren Fellowship from Harvard University and a Sloan Foundation grant for his work on stakeholder theory.
Jeffrey L. Cruikshank is a cofounder of Kohn-Cruikshank, Inc., a Boston-based communications consulting firm.
Reviews 3
Booklist Review
Who is the most powerful person in the world? The authors, both consultants and cowriters of The Engine That Could, say that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan fits the bill, as his pronouncements can cause interest rates to soar or plummet. Even the smallest statement from Greenspan can send the market into a tizzy, and the authors dissect virtually every speech or written statement the chairman has made since 1987. Even more impressively, they go the extra mile and forecast what Greenspan will say in the future and what impact his words will have on the global economy. It is difficult to convey the level of detail to which the authors go; much of what is here is extremely technical, and the casual investor will likely steer clear after just a couple of chapters. However, the analysis and subsequent predictions are well suited to the serious economist. In post^-cold war America and the world, Greenspan's utterances have an obvious impact, but never before have they been so exhaustively scrutinized. --Joe Collins
Choice Review
The premise of The Greenspan Effect is that the Fed chairman reveals his consistent theoretical orientation, and occasionally the future direction of interest rates, in his public utterances. The authors sift through and comment on excerpts of Greenspan's speeches and congressional testimony, which address numerous topics including whether there is a "new" economy, the future of the Federal Reserve, the evolution of financial services, and the economic impact of technological change. They close with a disappointing chapter purporting to show investors how understanding Greenspan can enhance their market performance. Steven Beckner's Back from the Brink: The Greenspan Years (CH, May'97) provides more depth on Greenspan and on the Federal Reserve. Linking the chairman's comments to stock market gains suggests a marketing ploy, but Sicilia and Cruikshank do provide a useful analysis. Their strategy of providing numerous quotes of Greenspan followed by a short interpretation is quite effective. Greenspan, an economist who talks largely about banking and financial markets using terms most familiar to other economists, seems an unlikely candidate for a cult of personality, but the financial press has elevated him to cult status. The authors' commentary on the sayings of Chairman Greenspan usefully explicates the ideas of this interesting man directing a powerful institution. Public and undergraduate library collections. R. T. Averitt; Smith College
Library Journal Review
The words of Federal Reserve Board chairman Alan Greenspan are said to have the power to move markets. Sicilia, a business historian, and Cruikshank, a communications consultant, set out to prove that theory through examination of movements of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) in the days surrounding several of Greenspan's speeches. And, indeed, they discover a "Greenspan Effect": Greenspan's words significantly changed market valuations for several daysÄbut the DJIA tended to return to its trend after that time. The bulk of the book consists of short excerpts from Greenspan's speeches, organized by topic, with brief passages of explanation; the authors also provide a biographical sketch of Greenspan and a brief history of central banking in the United States. Of particular interest are Chapter 29, explaining Greenspan's opposition to federal budget deficits, and Chapter 37, providing 16 tips to keep in mind when interpreting Greenspan's speeches. Recommended for both public and academic libraries.ÄA.J. Sobczak, Covina, CA (c) Copyright 2010. Library Journals LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Media Source, Inc. No redistribution permitted.
Table of Contents
| The Power of Greenspan | p. xi |
| Part I Greenspan, the Fed, and the Stock Market | |
| 1 The Fed Chairman as World Celebrity | p. 3 |
| 2 The Fed's Levers of Power | p. 15 |
| Part II Words That Lift Markets | |
| 3 The "Exceptional" Economy | p. 29 |
| 4 The "Oasis of Prosperity" | p. 35 |
| 5 The "Salutary" Sell-Off | p. 42 |
| 6 The Wealth Effect | p. 47 |
| Part III Words That Sink Markets | |
| 7 "Irrational Exuberance" in the Stock Markets | p. 55 |
| 8 Battling Inflation | p. 62 |
| 9 Tight Labor Markets | p. 68 |
| 10 Financial Contagion | p. 74 |
| Part IV Remaking Financial Institutions | |
| 11 Reforming Social Security | p. 83 |
| 12 Merging Commercial and Investment Banking | p. 90 |
| 13 Reforming Federal Deposit Insurance | p. 95 |
| 14 Derivatives | p. 99 |
| Part V World Crisis Manager | |
| 15 The Asian Crisis | p. 109 |
| 16 The Crash of '87 | p. 115 |
| 17 The Gulf War | p. 121 |
| Part VI Competing in the Global Economy | |
| 18 U.S. International Competitiveness | p. 129 |
| 19 Foreign Investment in the U.S. | p. 134 |
| 20 Economic Reform in Russia and Eastern Europe | p. 139 |
| 21 The Virtues of Capitalism | p. 144 |
| Part VII Critical Investments | |
| 22 The American Education System | p. 151 |
| 23 Consumer Saving, Credit, and Retirement | p. 155 |
| 24 Corporate Restructuring | p. 160 |
| 25 Income Inequality | p. 165 |
| 26 Small Business Finance | p. 169 |
| 27 The Farm Economy | p. 174 |
| 28 Mortgage Finance | p. 179 |
| 29 The Federal Budget Deficit | p. 184 |
| Part VIII Greenspan Looks Toward the 21st Century | |
| 30 The "New" Economy | p. 193 |
| 31 The Future of the Federal Reserve | p. 201 |
| 32 The Future of the Banking System | p. 205 |
| 33 The Future of Financial Services | p. 210 |
| 34 Technology and the Future | p. 214 |
| Part IX The Investor's Roadmap to Greenspan | |
| 35 Explaining the Greenspan Effect | p. 221 |
| 36 The Game of Deciphering Greenspan | p. 228 |
| 37 What Matters--and Doesn't--When the Chairman Speaks | p. 235 |
| 38 Greenspan and the Future of the Stock Market | p. 243 |
| Notes | p. 251 |
| Bibliography | p. 269 |
| Index | p. 271 |
