Risk assessment, modeling and decision support : strategic directions

1 2 Ann Bostrom , Steven P. French 1,2 Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, USA st The first years of the 21 century brought horrific loss of life and property from earthquakes and tsunamis worldwide. Briefly, the world focused on international disaster prevention, response and recovery. Terrorism loomed large as well, after 9-11, leading to the creation of the Department of Homeland Security in the United States, and a plethora of related efforts globally. Many of these focus on the built environment. In the U.S. and elsewhere, large-scale infrastructure is stressed; roads, bridges, sewers, and dams built in the last century are deteriorating. Rising population is taxing existing infrastructure more and more as its reliability declines. As a society, we are developing dependencies on new kinds of infrastructure; these too are fragile and may age even less gracefully than sewers and roads. Our infrastructure - including human services, financial, and information - is both increasingly vulnerable and increasingly critical to society. Around the world, we are extending the built environment into incre- ingly fragile natural environments, raising the potential for catastrophe from natural disasters. Social, economic and environmental disparities are also growing between groups, both within the U.S. and between developed and developing countries, putting vulnerable groups even more at risk from extreme events.

1 Introduction	p. 1
1.1 Roadmap to the Book	p. 2
2 A Brief History of Seismic Risk Assessment	p. 5
2.1 Introduction	p. 5
2.2 Terminology	p. 6
2.3 Overview of Seismic Risk Assessment	p. 9
2.4 A Brief Chronology of Selected Events in Seismic Risk Assessment	p. 11
2.5 How We Got Here	p. 11
2.6 Vulnerability	p. 30
2.7 Special Vulnerability Relations	p. 40
2.8 Asset Identification and Attributes	p. 44
2.9 Risk Analysis Methods	p. 47
2.10 Assessment	p. 50
2.11 Current Status	p. 53
2.12 Concluding Remarks	p. 55
2.13 Acknowledgments	p. 56
References	p. 57
3 Perspectives on the History of Seismic Risk Assessment	p. 83
Introduction	p. 83
3.1 Lessons Leaned from Current Practice and Future Needs in Regional Loss Estimation	p. 84
3.2 The Dawn of Earthquake Investigations and Cross-Continent Interactions	p. 89
3.3 Social Science Perspectives on Seismic Risk Assessment	p. 96
3.4 Seismic Risk Assessment: History and Strategic Directions	p. 97
References	p. 99
4 Strategic Directions in Seismic Modeling: HAZUS Development and Current Applications for Catastrophe Planning	p. 101
4.1 Introduction	p. 101
4.2 HAZUS Earthquake Model Overview	p. 102
4.3 Use of HAZUS to Support Catastrophe Planning	p. 104
4.4 Use of HAZUS to Link Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Disaster Response	p. 110
4.5 Utilization of a Web-Based Data Management Portal System	p. 113
4.6 Conclusions	p. 115
References	p. 115
5 Perspectives on Development and Current Applications for Catastrophe Planning	p. 117
Introduction	p. 117
5.1 Recommended Improvements for HAZUS	p. 118
5.2 User Dynamics and HAZUS Development	p. 123
5.3 Perspectives from a HAZUS User	p. 127
5.4 Strategic Directions for HAZUS and Current Applications for Catastrophe Planning	p. 129
References	p. 132
6 Loss Estimation Models and Metrics	p. 135
6.1 Introduction	p. 135
6.2 Loss Dimensions	p. 136
6.3 Components of the HAZUS Loss Estimation Methodology	p. 139
6.4 Current Limitations	p. 143
6.5 Loss Calibration Studies	p. 145
6.6 General Guidelines on the Use of Loss Estimates	p. 150
6.7 Research Topics	p. 153
References	p. 154
Bibliography of Additional HAZUS Studies	p. 156
7 Perspectives on Loss Estimation Models and Metrics	p. 171
Introduction	p. 171
7.1 Model Validation and Priorities in Loss Metrics	p. 172
7.2 Additional Considerations in Loss Estimation	p. 175
7.3 Social and Economic Considerations in Loss Estimation Modeling	p. 179
7.4 Strategic Directions for Loss Estimation Models and Metrics	p. 181
References	p. 183
8 Seismic Risk Mitigation Decisions Under Uncertainty	p. 185
8.1 Introduction	p. 185
8.2 Seismic Risk Analysis for Nuclear Power Plants	p. 186
8.3 Nuclear Power Plant Seismic Design	p. 187
8.4 Recommendations for Seismic Risk Mitigation Decisions	p. 193
8.5 Importance of Uncertainties	p. 195
8.6 Summary	p. 197
References	p. 197
9 Perspectives on Seismic Risk Mitigation Decisions Under Uncertainty	p. 199
Introduction	p. 199
9.1 Perspectives from a Risk Assessment Practitioner	p. 200
9.2 Seismic Risk Assessment and Mitigation: Current Issues	p. 208
9.3 On the Importance of Network Considerations in Lifeline Risk Assessment	p. 214
9.4 Strategic Directions for Seismic Risk Mitigation Decisions Under Uncertainty	p. 222
References	p. 224
10 Modeling Seismic Mitigation Strategies	p. 227
10.1 Introduction	p. 228
10.2 Structure of Catastrophe Models	p. 229
10.3 A Comparison of Models	p. 230
10.4 The Exceedance Probability Curve	p. 233
10.5 Choice of Seismic Mitigation Strategies	p. 235
10.6 Cost-Benefit Analysis	p. 237
10.7 A Mitigation Example Using an Insurance-Based Model	p. 238
10.8 Consideration of Decision Processes	p. 242
10.9 Improving the Modeling of Seismic Mitigation Strategies	p. 243
References	p. 244
11 Perspectives on Modeling Seismic Mitigation Strategies	p. 247
Introduction	p. 247
11.1 Catastrophe Modeling Paradigm Shift	p. 248
11.2 A Structural Engineering Perspective on Modeling Seismic Mitigation Strategies	p. 252
11.3 The Role of Risk Modeling in Mitigation	p. 254
11.4 Adopting Mitigation	p. 255
11.5 Strategic Directions for Modeling Seismic Mitigation Strategies	p. 256
References	p. 259
12 Visualizing Uncertainty in Natural Hazards	p. 261
12.1 Introduction	p. 261
12.2 From Concepts to Representations	p. 263
12.3 Uncertainty Visualization	p. 269
12.4 Task-Oriented Visual Mappings	p. 282
12.5 Hazards Visualization	p. 285
12.6 Challenges	p. 290
12.7 Acknowledgments	p. 291
References	p. 291
13 Perspectives on Visualizing Uncertainty in Natural Hazards	p. 295
Introduction	p. 295
13.1 Preferred Data Visualization Techniques May Not Lead to Comprehension and Use of Hazard Information	p. 296
13.2 Putting Seismic Risk and Uncertainty on the Map	p. 306
13.3 Keep Representations Simple for Effective Communication	p. 311
13.4 Strategic Directions for Visualizing Uncertainty in Natural Hazards	p. 313
References	p. 314
14 Conclusion	p. 319
Index	p. 323
List of Contributing Authors	p. 329

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