Human Reliability and Error in Transportation Systems

Each year billions of dollars are being spent to develop, manufacture, and operate transportation systems such as aircraft, ships, trains, and motor vehicles throughout the world. During their operation thousands of lives are lost annually due to various types accidents. Needless to say, approximately 70 to 90 percent of transportation crashes are the result of human error to a certain degree. Moreover, it may be added that human errors contribute significantly to most transportation crashes across all modes of transportation.

Human Reliability and Error in Transportation Systems is the first book to cover the subject of human reliability across all types of transportation system. The material will be accessible to readers with no previous knowledge in the field, and is supported with a full explanation of the necessary mathematical concepts together with numerous examples and test problems.

1 Introduction	p. 1
1.1 Background	p. 1
1.2 Human Error in Transportation Systems Related Facts and Figures	p. 1
1.3 Terms And Definitions	p. 3
1.4 Useful Information on Human Reliability and Error in Transportation Systems	p. 4
1.4.1 Journals	p. 4
1.4.2 Conference Proceedings	p. 5
1.4.3 Books	p. 5
1.4.4 Technical Reports	p. 6
1.4.5 Organizations	p. 7
1.4.6 Data Sources	p. 8
1.5 Scope of the Book	p. 8
1.6 Problems	p. 9
References	p. 10
2 Human Reliability and Error Basic Mathematical Concepts	p. 13
2.1 Introduction	p. 13
2.2 Sets, Boolean Algebra Laws, Probability Definition, and Probability Properties	p. 13
2.3 Useful Mathematical Definitions	p. 16
2.3.1 Cumulative Distribution Function Type I	p. 16
2.3.2 Probability Density Function Type 1	p. 17
2.3.3 Cumulative Distribution Function Type II	p. 17
2.3.4 Probability Density Function Type II	p. 17
2.3.5 Expected Value Type 1	p. 17
2.3.6 Expected Value Type II	p. 18
2.3.7 Laplace Transform	p. 18
2.3.8 Laplace Transform: Final-value Theorem	p. 19
2.4 Solving First-order Differential Equations with Laplace Transforms	p. 19
2.5 Probability Distributions	p. 20
2.5.1 Binomial Distribution	p. 20
2.5.2 Poisson Distribution	p. 21
2.5.3 Exponential Distribution	p. 22
2.5.4 Rayleigh Distribution	p. 23
2.5.5 Weibull Distribution	p. 23
2.5.6 Gamma Distribution	p. 24
2.5.7 Log-normal Distribution	p. 25
2.5.8 Normal Distribution	p. 25
2.6 Problems	p. 26
References	p. 27
3 Introductory Human Factors	p. 29
3.1 Introduction	p. 29
3.2 Human Factors Objectives, Disciplines Contributing to Human Factors, and Human and Machine Characteristics	p. 30
3.3 General Human Behaviors and Human Sensory Capabilities	p. 31
3.4 Useful Human Factors-related Formulas	p. 34
3.4.1 Formula I: Rest Period Estimation	p. 34
3.4.2 Formula II: Maximum Safe Car Speed Estimation	p. 35
3.4.3 Formula III: Inspector Performance Estimation	p. 35
3.4.4 Formula IV: Character Height Estimation	p. 35
3.4.5 Formula V: Brightness Contrast Estimation	p. 36
3.4.6 Formula VI: Glare Constant Estimation	p. 37
3.5 Human Factors Considerations in the System Design and Their Advantages	p. 37
3.6 Human Factors Data Collection Sources, Data Documents, and Selective Data	p. 38
3.7 Useful Human Factors Guidelines for System Design	p. 39
3.8 Problems	p. 40
References	p. 41
4 Basic Human Reliability and Error Concepts	p. 43
4.1 Introduction	p. 43
4.2 Occupational Stressors and Human Performance Effectiveness	p. 44
4.3 Human Error Occurrence Reasons, Ways, and Consequences	p. 45
4.4 Human Error Classifications	p. 46
4.5 Human Performance Reliability Function	p. 47
4.5.1 Experimental Justification for Some Time to Human Error Statistical Distributions	p. 48
4.5.2 Mean Time to Human Error	p. 49
4.6 Human Reliability and Error Analysis Methods	p. 50
4.6.1 Personnel Reliability Index Method	p. 50
4.6.2 Man-Machine Systems Analysis	p. 51
4.6.3 Cause and Effect Diagram (CAED)	p. 52
4.6.4 Error-cause Removal Program (ECRP)	p. 52
4.7 Problems	p. 53
References	p. 54
5 Methods for Performing Human Reliability and Error Analysis in Transportation Systems	p. 57
5.1 Introduction	p. 57
5.2 Probability Tree Method	p. 57
5.3 Failure Modes and Effect Analysis (FMEA)	p. 60
5.3.1 Steps for Performing FMEA	p. 60
5.3.2 FMEA Benefits	p. 62
5.4 Technics of Operation Review (TOR)	p. 62
5.5 The Throughput Ratio Method	p. 63
5.6 Fault Tree Analysis	p. 64
5.6.1 Fault Tree Symbols	p. 64
5.6.2 Steps for Performing Fault Tree Analysis	p. 65
5.6.3 Probability Evaluation of Fault Trees	p. 66
5.7 Pareto Analysis	p. 67
5.8 Pontecorvo Method	p. 68
5.9 Markov Method	p. 69
5.10 Block Diagram Method	p. 72
5.11 Problems	p. 74
References	p. 75
6 Human Error in Railways	p. 77
6.1 Introduction	p. 77
6.2 Facts, Figures, and Examples	p. 77
6.3 Railway Personnel Error-prone Tasks and Typical Human Error Occurrence Areas in Railway Operation	p. 78
6.3.1 Signal Passing	p. 78
6.3.2 Train Speed	p. 80
6.3.3 Signalling or Dispatching	p. 80
6.4 Important Error Contributing Factors in Railways	p. 80
6.5 Human Error Analysis Methods	p. 81
6.5.1 Cause and Effect Diagram	p. 82
6.5.2 Fault Tree Analysis	p. 83
6.6 Analysis of Railway Accidents Due to Human Error	p. 86
6.6.1 The Ladbroke Grove Accident	p. 86
6.6.2 The Purley Accident	p. 87
6.6.3 The Southall Accident	p. 87
6.6.4 The Clapham Junction Accident	p. 87
6.7 A Useful Checklist of Statements for Reducing the Occurrence of Human Error in Railways	p. 88
6.8 Problems	p. 89
References	p. 89
7 Human Error in Shipping	p. 91
7.1 Introduction	p. 91
7.2 Facts, Figures, and Examples	p. 91
7.3 Human Factors Issues Facing the Marine Industry	p. 92
7.4 Risk Analysis Methods for Application in Marine Systems	p. 94
7.5 Fault Tree Analysis of Oil Tanker Groundings	p. 96
7.6 Safety Management Assessment System to Identify and Evaluate Human and Organizational Factors in Marine Systems	p. 99
7.7 Reducing the Manning Impact on Shipping System Reliability	p. 100
7.8 Problems	p. 101
References	p. 101
8 Human Error in Road Transportation Systems	p. 105
8.1 Introduction	p. 105
8.2 Facts and Figures	p. 105
8.3 Operational Influences on Commercial Driver Performance	p. 106
8.4 Types of Driver Errors, Ranking of Driver Errors, and Common Driver Errors	p. 106
8.5 Methods for Performing Human Error Analysis in Road Transportation Systems	p. 109
8.5.1 Fault Tree Analysis	p. 109
8.5.2 Markov Method	p. 112
8.6 Bus Accidents and Driver Error in Developing Countries	p. 114
8.7 Problems	p. 115
References	p. 116
9 Human Error in Aviation	p. 117
9.1 Introduction	p. 117
9.2 Facts, Figures, and Examples	p. 117
9.3 Organizational Factors in Commercial Aviation Accidents with Respect to Pilot Error	p. 118
9.4 Factors Contributing to Flight Crew Decision Errors	p. 119
9.5 Fatigue in Long-haul Operations	p. 120
9.6 Reasons for Retaining Air Traffic Controllers, Effects of Automation on Controllers, and Factors for Controller-caused Airspace Incidents	p. 121
9.7 Types of Pilot-Controller Communication Errors and Recommendations to Reduce Communication Errors	p. 123
9.8 Methods for Performing Human Error Analysis in Aviation	p. 124
9.8.1 Fault Tree Analysis	p. 125
9.9 Examples and Study of Actual Airline Accidents due to Human Error	p. 127
9.10 Accident Prevention Strategies	p. 128
9.11 Problems	p. 128
References	p. 129
10 Human Error in Aircraft Maintenance	p. 131
10.1 Introduction	p. 131
10.2 Facts, Figures and Examples	p. 131
10.3 Reasons for the Occurrence of Human Error in Maintenance	p. 132
10.4 Major Categories of Human Errors in Aircraft Maintenance and Inspection Tasks, Classification of Human Error in Aircraft Maintenance and Their Occurrence Frequency, and Common Errors in Aircraft Maintenance	p. 133
10.5 Methods for Performing Human Error Analysis in Aircraft Maintenance	p. 135
10.5.1 Fault Tree Analysis	p. 135
10.5.2 Markov Method	p. 138
10.6 Case Studies of Human Error in Aviation Maintenance	p. 140
10.6.1 British Airways BAC 1-11 Aircraft Accident	p. 141
10.6.2 Continental Express Embraer Brasilia Accident	p. 141
10.7 Useful Guidelines to Reduce Human Error in Aircraft Maintenance	p. 141
10.8 Problems	p. 143
References	p. 143
11 Mathematical Models for Predicting Human Reliability and Error in Transportation Systems	p. 145
11.1 Introduction	p. 145
11.2 Models for Predicting Human Performance Reliability and Correctability Probability in Transportation Systems	p. 145
11.2.1 Model 1	p. 146
11.2.2 Model II	p. 147
11.3 Models for Predicting Human Performance Reliability Subject to Critical and Noncritical Human Errors, and Fluctuating Environment in Transportation Systems	p. 149
11.3.1 Model 1	p. 149
11.3.2 Model II	p. 152
11.4 Models for Performing Human Error Analysis in Transportation Systems	p. 155
11.4.1 Model I	p. 155
11.4.2 Model II	p. 158
11.4.3 Model III	p. 160
11.5 Problems	p. 164
References	p. 164
Appendix	p. 165
Bibliography: Literature on Human Reliability and Error in Transportation Systems	p. 165
A.1 Introduction	p. 165
A.2 Publications	p. 165
Author Biography	p. 177
Index	p. 179

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