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Summary
Summary
This is the first comprehensive text to describe and quantify the methods commonly used to predict the probability of successfully attacking ground targets using air-launched or ground-launched weapons. Air launched weapons include guided and unguided bombs, air-to-ground missiles, LGBs, rockets, and guns. Surface engagements cover both direct and indirect fire weapons. The text outlines the various methodologies used in operational products used widely in the U.S. Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marine Corps. It explains the underlying methodologies for the key munitions effectiveness tools, Joint Air-to-Surface Weaponeering Systems (JAWS), and JMEM/SS Weapons Effectiveness Systems.
Author Notes
Morris Driels has taught at universities in the United Kingdom and the United States for over 30 years
Table of Contents
Preface | p. xvii |
Acknowledgments | p. xxi |
Nomenclature | p. xxiii |
List of Acronyms | p. xxvii |
Part 1 Basic Tools and Methods | |
Chapter 1 Weaponeering Process | p. 3 |
1.1 Definitions | p. 3 |
1.2 Air Tasking Orders | p. 3 |
1.3 Weaponeering--Part of a Larger Planning Cycle | p. 4 |
1.4 Example of a Weaponeering Tool | p. 5 |
Chapter 2 Introduction to Statistical Methods | p. 9 |
2.1 Population and Sample | p. 9 |
2.2 Univariate Distribution | p. 9 |
2.3 Univariate Normal Distribution | p. 11 |
2.4 Bivariate Normal Distribution | p. 16 |
2.5 Combinatorial Probabilities | p. 19 |
2.6 Circular Normal and Rayleigh Distributions | p. 20 |
2.7 Uniform Distribution | p. 23 |
2.8 Binomial Distribution | p. 24 |
2.9 Poisson Distribution | p. 28 |
2.10 Testing Data for a Particular Distribution | p. 29 |
2.11 Functions of Random Variables | p. 31 |
2.12 Mathematical Expectation | p. 31 |
Chapter 3 Weapon Trajectory | p. 35 |
3.1 Introduction | p. 35 |
3.2 Weapon Delivery Tactics | p. 36 |
3.3 Initial Release Velocities | p. 36 |
3.4 Zero-Drag, Point-Mass Trajectory Model | p. 38 |
3.5 Linear-Drag Model | p. 41 |
3.6 High-Fidelity Trajectory Model | p. 45 |
3.7 Unguided Surface-to-Surface Munition Trajectory | p. 48 |
3.8 Effects of Winds on Ballistic Trajectory | p. 50 |
3.9 Trajectory for Guided Munitions | p. 51 |
3.10 Ballistic Partial from Trajectory Programs | p. 53 |
3.11 Summary of Model Features | p. 55 |
Chapter 4 Delivery Accuracy | p. 57 |
4.1 Introduction | p. 57 |
4.2 General Measures of Delivery Accuracy | p. 59 |
4.3 Commonly Used Equations Based on Normal Data | p. 62 |
4.4 Noncircular Distributions | p. 64 |
4.5 Delivery Accuracy in the Normal Plane | p. 64 |
4.6 Treatment of Ballistic Errors | p. 68 |
4.7 Delivery Accuracy of Unguided Weapons | p. 69 |
4.8 Delivery Accuracy of Unguided Surface-Launched Weapons | p. 69 |
4.9 Delivery Accuracy of Unguided Air-Launched Weapons | p. 70 |
4.10 Mechanization | p. 70 |
4.11 CCRP Mechanization | p. 71 |
4.12 CCIP Mechanization | p. 73 |
4.13 Bombing Modes | p. 75 |
4.14 Sources of Weapon Miss Distances | p. 77 |
4.15 Computation of Miss Distances for CCRP Mechanization | p. 78 |
4.16 Accumulation of Individual Miss Distances for CCRP | p. 87 |
4.17 Computation of Miss Distances for CCIP Mechanization | p. 89 |
4.18 Bombing on Coordinates Mechanization | p. 92 |
4.19 Air-Launched Guided Weapon Delivery Accuracy | p. 94 |
4.20 Surface-Launched Guided Weapon Delivery Accuracy | p. 99 |
4.21 GPS-Guided Weapons | p. 99 |
Reference | p. 104 |
Chapter 5 Vulnerability Assessment--Introductory Methods | p. 105 |
5.1 Weapon Damage Mechanisms | p. 105 |
5.2 Introduction to Effectiveness Indices | p. 106 |
5.3 Requirements for the Computation of Effectiveness Indices | p. 108 |
5.4 Vulnerability Assessment for Fragmentation Warheads | p. 108 |
5.5 Vulnerable Area | p. 110 |
5.6 Critical and Noncritical Components | p. 111 |
5.7 Redundant and Nonredundant Critical Components | p. 111 |
5.8 Target Vulnerability to Single Fragments | p. 111 |
5.9 Case (a)--Target Composed of Nonredundant Critical Components with No Overlap | p. 113 |
5.10 Case (b)--Target Composed of Nonredundant Critical Components with Overlap | p. 115 |
5.11 Case (c)--Target Composed of Some Redundant Components with No Overlap | p. 117 |
5.12 Case (d)--Target Composed of Some Redundant Components with Overlap | p. 119 |
5.13 Multiple-Hit Vulnerability | p. 120 |
5.14 Effectiveness Assessment for a Specific Weapon | p. 121 |
5.15 Centroid of Vulnerability and Different Fragment Weights | p. 125 |
5.16 Damage Matrix and Lethal Area | p. 127 |
Reference | p. 129 |
Chapter 6 Vulnerability Assessment--Advanced Methods | p. 131 |
6.1 Introduction | p. 131 |
6.2 COVART | p. 133 |
6.3 Shotline Analysis | p. 134 |
6.4 Shotline P[subscript k/sh] | p. 135 |
6.5 COVART Computational Model for Calculating Vulnerable Areas | p. 136 |
6.6 Effectiveness Assessment: Computing the Damage Matrix | p. 138 |
6.7 Detailed Description of the GFSM | p. 145 |
6.8 Orientation of Weapon in GFSM Scenario | p. 146 |
6.9 GFSM Target Description | p. 147 |
6.10 GFSM Weapon Description | p. 147 |
6.11 GFSM Fragment Drag Data | p. 147 |
6.12 GFSM Computational Model | p. 148 |
6.13 GFSM Computation of P[subscript K] | p. 148 |
6.14 GFSM Calculation of the P[subscript K](r, [gamma subscript j]) | p. 151 |
6.15 Review of Computational Procedure | p. 153 |
6.16 Worked Problem for GFSM Methodology | p. 154 |
6.17 Computation of the P[subscript K] Matrix | p. 156 |
6.18 Simplification of Damage Matrix for Effectiveness Calculations | p. 159 |
6.19 Conserving Lethality for Different Damage Functions | p. 163 |
6.20 Lethal Area Calculation for Targets Sensitive to Blast | p. 164 |
Part 2 Air-to-Surface Weaponeering | |
Chapter 7 Single Weapons Against Unitary Targets | p. 169 |
7.1 The Single Sortie Probability of Damage--SSPD | p. 169 |
7.2 SSPD for Single Fragmentation Weapon and Unitary Target | p. 171 |
7.3 Comparing Expected Value with Monte Carlo Simulation | p. 173 |
7.4 SSPD for Single Blast Damage Function and Unitary Target | p. 174 |
7.5 Some Computational Considerations | p. 176 |
7.6 Force Estimation | p. 177 |
7.7 Simple Spreadsheet Implementation to Compute SSPD | p. 177 |
7.8 Template for Implementing Weaponeering Solutions | p. 180 |
7.9 Calculating SSPD for Guided Weapons | p. 184 |
7.10 Bomb Burial | p. 187 |
7.11 Summary of Model Features | p. 189 |
Chapter 8 Single Weapons Directed Against an Area of Targets | p. 193 |
8.1 Introduction | p. 193 |
8.2 Measurement of Damage | p. 193 |
8.3 Weapon Represented by Rectangular Damage Function | p. 196 |
8.4 Effect of Multiple Weapons and Aim Points | p. 197 |
8.5 Fractional Coverage | p. 200 |
8.6 Spreadsheet to Compute EFD | p. 207 |
8.7 Weaponeering Spreadsheet | p. 208 |
8.8 Calculating EFD for Guided Weapons | p. 210 |
8.9 Weapon Represented by Carleton Damage Function | p. 210 |
8.10 Summary of Model Features | p. 215 |
Reference | p. 216 |
Chapter 9 Stick Deliveries | p. 217 |
9.1 Introduction | p. 217 |
9.2 Determining the Pattern Dimensions | p. 217 |
9.3 Calculating Stick Width | p. 219 |
9.4 Calculating Stick Length | p. 221 |
9.5 Ballistic Dispersion for Stick Deliveries | p. 223 |
9.6 Pattern Dimensions | p. 226 |
9.7 Weapon Sparsity and Overlap in the Pattern | p. 227 |
9.8 Summary of Computing EFD for Sticks | p. 230 |
9.9 Spreadsheet Implementation | p. 231 |
9.10 Advanced Method for Calculating EFD | p. 231 |
9.11 Effect on EFD of Different Multiple-Weapon Representations | p. 236 |
9.12 Summary of Model Features | p. 237 |
Chapter 10 Projectiles | p. 239 |
10.1 Introduction | p. 239 |
10.2 Assumptions for Projectile Methodology | p. 239 |
10.3 Accuracy Considerations | p. 241 |
10.4 Damage Functions | p. 242 |
10.5 Effectiveness Calculations | p. 243 |
10.6 SSPD When More Than One Round is Required for a Kill | p. 244 |
10.7 Spreadsheet Implementation | p. 245 |
10.8 Summary of Model Features | p. 245 |
Chapter 11 Cluster Munitions | p. 249 |
11.1 Introduction | p. 249 |
11.2 General Analytical Treatment of Cluster Munitions | p. 255 |
11.3 Trajectory Computations | p. 257 |
11.4 Submunition Pattern Dimensions | p. 258 |
11.5 Rectangular Patterns in the Ground Plane | p. 260 |
11.6 Circular Patterns in the Normal Plane | p. 263 |
11.7 Effect of Ballistic Dispersion | p. 267 |
11.8 Spreadsheet Implementation | p. 267 |
11.9 Summary of Model Features | p. 270 |
Chapter 12 Weaponeering for Specific Targets | p. 273 |
12.1 Introduction | p. 273 |
12.2 Bridges | p. 273 |
12.3 Effective Miss Distance (EMD) Damage Function | p. 277 |
12.4 Above-Ground Buildings | p. 284 |
12.5 Summary of Weaponeering Methodologies and Applicable EI | p. 291 |
12.6 Collateral Damage and Indirect Aim Points | p. 292 |
Part 3 Surface-to-Surface Weaponeering | |
Chapter 13 Indirect Fire--Artillery and Mortar Systems | p. 307 |
13.1 Introduction | p. 307 |
13.2 Terminology and Combat Scenarios | p. 307 |
13.3 Aim-Point Selection | p. 308 |
13.4 Weapon Lethal Area | p. 310 |
13.5 Delivery Accuracy | p. 313 |
13.6 Munition Trajectory | p. 315 |
13.7 Naval Gunfire | p. 317 |
13.8 Comparing Direct- and Indirect-Fire Effectiveness Methods | p. 317 |
13.9 Methodologies for Surface-to-Surface Weaponeering Tools | p. 324 |
13.10 Superquickie 2, Unitary Warhead | p. 325 |
13.11 Superquickie 2, Improved Conventional Munition | p. 332 |
13.12 High-Fidelity Model--Matrix Evaluator Program | p. 335 |
13.13 Fractional Damage Calculations for Multiple Events | p. 340 |
13.14 Improved Conventional Munitions in Matrix Evaluator | p. 341 |
13.15 Artquik Method | p. 343 |
13.16 Damage Done by a Single Weapon with an Offset Aim Point | p. 344 |
13.17 Carleton Damage Function and Ballistic Dispersion | p. 346 |
13.18 Methodology for Multiple Unitary Warhead Munitions | p. 347 |
13.19 Artquik Model for ICMs | p. 351 |
13.20 Summary of Model Features | p. 352 |
Chapter 14 Direct Fire: Infantry and Vehicle Systems | p. 355 |
14.1 Introduction | p. 355 |
14.2 Direct Fire Against Personnel Targets--FBAR | p. 355 |
14.3 Direct Fire Against Vehicles--Passive Vehicle Target Model (PVTM) | p. 362 |
14.4 Summary of Model Features | p. 368 |
Chapter 15 Mines | p. 371 |
15.1 Introduction | p. 371 |
15.2 Land Mines | p. 371 |
15.3 Land Minefield Specification and Planning | p. 372 |
15.4 Simplified Land Mine Method--Minefield Density | p. 375 |
15.5 Detailed Land Mine Method | p. 378 |
15.6 Sea Mines | p. 382 |
15.7 Shallow-Water Sea Mines | p. 383 |
15.8 Deep-Water Sea Mines | p. 384 |
15.9 Antisubmarine Mines | p. 388 |
15.10 Summary of Model Features | p. 389 |
Chapter 16 Target Acquisition | p. 393 |
16.1 Introduction | p. 393 |
16.2 Experimental Contrast Thresholds for the Human Eye | p. 395 |
16.3 Overington Threshold Model | p. 397 |
16.4 Field Tests Detecting Military Targets | p. 402 |
16.5 Johnson's Frequency-Domain Experiments | p. 403 |
16.6 Acquire Target Acquisition Model | p. 406 |
16.7 Air-to-Surface Target Acquisition | p. 412 |
16.8 Flight Profile and Run-in Effects | p. 412 |
16.9 Terrain Model | p. 414 |
16.10 Detection Range R[subscript VIS] | p. 419 |
16.11 Conversion of Range to Probability of Launch | p. 420 |
16.12 Description of the JMEM Target Acquisition Model | p. 424 |
16.13 Time-Dependent Target Detection--Search | p. 425 |
16.14 Summary of Model Features | p. 427 |
References | p. 429 |
Appendix A Standard Statistical Tables | p. 431 |
Appendix B Weapon Selection Based on Target and Damage Criteria | p. 435 |
Appendix C Weapon Types and Selection | p. 455 |
C.1 Aircraft Loadouts | p. 455 |
C.2 Aircraft Weapons | p. 455 |
Index | p. 463 |
Supporting Materials | p. 475 |