Cover image for Managing risk : methods for software systems development
Title:
Managing risk : methods for software systems development
Personal Author:
Series:
The SEI series in software engineering
Publication Information:
Reading, Mass. : Addison-Wesley, 1998
ISBN:
9780201255928

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Summary

Summary

"The increasing rate of technological change we are experiencing in our lifetime yields competitive advantage to organizations and individuals who are willing to embrace risk and the opportunities it presents. Those who choose to minimize or avoid risk, as opposed to managing it, set a course for obsolescence. Hall has captured the essence of risk management and given us a practical guide for the application of useful principles in software-intensive product development. This is must reading for public and private sector managers who want to succeed as we begin the next century." - Daniel P. Czelusniak, Director, Acquisition Program Integration Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (Acquisition and Technology) The Pentagon

"Since it is more than just common sense, the newcomer to risk management needs an intelligent guide. It is in this role that Elaine Hall's book excels. This book provides a set of practical and well-delineated processes for implementation of the discipline."

- Tom DeMarco, from the Foreword

Risk is inherent in the development of any large software system. A common approach to risk in software development is to ignore it and hope that no serious problems occur. Leading software companies use quantitative risk management methods as a more useful approach to achieve success. Written for busy professionals charged with delivering high-quality products on time and within budget, Managing Risk is a comprehensive guide that describes a success formula for managing software risk. The book is divided into five parts that describe a risk management road map designed to take you from crisis to control of your software project.

Highlights include:

Six disciplines for managing product development. Steps to predictable risk-management process results. How to establish the infrastructure for a risk-aware culture. Methods for the implementation of a risk management plan. Case studies of people in crisis and in control.


Author Notes

Elaine M. Hall is founder of Level 6 Software, a leading consulting group in discovery methods for software engineering. She conducts training seminars and supports the implementation of software risk management for both government and industry clients worldwide. Dr. Hall is chair of the risk management working group for the International Council on Systems Engineering. She has nearly 20 years of experience in software systems engineering and management.

0201255928AB04062001


Excerpts

Excerpts

The growing pains of the software community continue with the increased demand for software systems. The fact that software, the code developed to execute in a computing system, is pervasive in todayIs society is both a problem and an opportunity for managers and engineers. Many software professionals see the problems, but only a few see the opportunities. Problems that cause projects to be late, over budget, or of poor quality are collectively known within the community as the software crisis. Application of traditional problem solving methods to solve the software crisis has been U for the most part U ineffective. The source of the software crisis is the project, process, and product risk that turns into problems because risk management is not done. Risk management differs from traditional problem solving, for the simple reason that a risk is not a problem. By analogy, risk management is to a risk what an algorithm is to a problem. Whereas problems may be solved by application of algorithms, a risk may be resolved by application of risk management. Software-risk management is a practice to resolve risks that affect the software project, process, or product. The purpose of Managing Risk is to help people responsible for software systems to acquire the knowledge necessary to apply software-risk management. This book provides a handy reference to help busy professionals assess and control software risks. This book will enable you to answer the following questions: What does it take to manage software risk? What is my current ability to manage software risk? How can I increase my ability to manage software risk? This book is a practical guide for managing software risk that is easy to use. It describes an approach to manage risk based on proven practices. Whether your level of expertise in managing risk is novice, beginner, intermediate, advanced, or expert, the five stages of risk-management evolution ensure that you know where to start your journey. Because risk is defined as the possibility of loss, traditional works often portray risk with a negative connotation. This book is distinctive in that it has a broad and positive perspective on risk. Risk has long been associated with unmet reliability, safety, and security requirements. Although these requirements are important applications of risk concepts, they do not preclude managing risk to satisfy any other requirement U such as profitability, reusability, and quality. This book makes no assumptions about what your requirements are; it simply encourages you to take a broad view of managing risk to satisfy your requirements and achieve your goals. This book does not judge the consequence of a risk. Instead, risk is reframed in a positive manner; opportunity cost is viewed as a loss. A broad and positive perspective of risk challenges us to exceed expectations through possibility thinking: How can we manage risk to benefit from the enormous opportunity that exists today in the field of software? Audience This book is written for people who manage and develop software systems, including those who hold the responsibilities for oversight and improvement of a software project, product, or process. I assume that you are a busy professional, interested in maintaining a competitive advantage for yourself and your organization. Your job could be one of these: Senior manager, responsible for management of an organization that has a core competency in software. Engineering manager, responsible for functional management of technical individuals who develop or maintain software systems. Project manager of software systems acquisition, development, or maintenance. Software manager, responsible for directing software teams. Systems engineer, responsible for meeting the technical requirements of software systems. Software engineer, responsible for large-scale software development or maintenance. Quality-assurance specialist, responsible for verification of process and product compliance using risk identification and problem prevention as a proactive strategy. Measurement analyst, responsible for either short term or long term measurement of software projects. Engineering process-group or process-action-team member, responsible for organizational technology transfer, process definition, and process improvement. Change agent, working with software organizations as a corporate trainer. Process consultant, performing risk assessment and risk management for clients within the government or commercial software sector. College professor, teaching software-project management or risk management. Book Overview The book is divided into five parts that describe a risk-management roadmap designed to take you from crisis to control of your software project. The path to increasing your ability to manage risk is shown through progress in four synergistic dimensions of people, process, infrastructure, and implementation. These dimensions provide a separation of responsibility and focus that map to the specialization of the roles required on a software project. Parallel efforts in each dimension may speed the transition of risk management in your organization. Each book part is introduced with a brief overview that summarizes the key topics covered in each Chapter, and why they are important. These five parts are: Part I, Risk-Management Discovery, lays the foundation for understanding the role of risk management in Part II, Risk-Management Process, elaborates the activities to perform risk management using a standard process-definition notation. Process steps, inputs, and outputs are fully defined. Methods and tools used by the process are shown by example. The process dimension describes the steps to predictable risk management results in terms of what and how. Engineering process-group or process-action-team members and process consultants can appreciate this reusable process component. Part III, Risk-Management Infrastructure, provides the organizational foundation that supports the establishment of a risk-aware culture. Training metrics help you provide just-enough information just-in-time. Techniques for project oversight are included, as well as a method for establishing a baseline for quantitative process improvement. Without infrastructure, there is no strategic plan in place to institutionalize risk management. Senior managers, engineering managers, and change agents should benefit from these organizational building blocks. Part IV, Risk-Management Implementation, instantiates the standard process within a software project. Risk management activities throughout the lifecycle are planned, budgeted, scheduled, and staffed. The implementation dimension describes who, where, when, and why. The details of the risk-management plan are presented, with tailoring suggestions for the standard process. Project managers, software managers, systems engineers, and software engineers behind schedule may tailor this plan to quickly claim progress. Part V, People in Crisis and Control, describes different project teams whose practices formed the basis of the risk-management evolution stages. These case studies provide a wealth of experiences, ancedotes, and benchmark data from the 1990s. I had the opportunity to survey and study peopleIs perceptions of the performance and importance of their risk-management practices. Effective and ineffective practices were identified by project managers, engineering managers, configuration managers, quality assurance specialists, systems engineers, software engineers, test engineers, and the customer. These insights and lessons learned should be invaluable to people struggling to manage software-systems risk. How to Read This Book The approach for reading this book depends on your job category, and your risk-management ability. Everyone should read Part I to provide the background for the rest of the book. Read Chapter 1 completely if you are a risk-management novice. Read Chapter 2 to learn the success formula for managing risk. Read Chapter 3 to understand the roadmap to increase your risk-management ability. Depending on your job category, Parts II-IV will apply. Read Part II if you are responsible for risk-management process definition or execution. Read Part III if you are responsible for establishing risk-management policy, conducting training, verifying compliance, or improving the process. Read Part IV if you are responsible for planning, tailoring, or performing risk management on a project. Everyone should read the case studies in Part V to benchmark their personal, project, and organization risk-management capability. As you read the case study that characterizes practices most similar to your own, you should be able to identify with the people and their behaviors. Note the similarities and the differences. More than likely, there will be differences due to individual risk preference, and your assessment of practices either above or below the level described in the case study. Read the following case study to help you determine the next steps in evolving your risk-management ability. You can use the questions at the end of each chapter to support retention and learning. Acknowledgments I would like to acknowledge the pioneers in the field of software-risk management for their foundational material. In order to add to the body of knowledge in this area, I stood on the shoulders of Dr. Barry Boehm, Dr. Robert Charette, and the Software Engineering Institute (SEI). Their ideas inspired me to develop risk-management methods for use by the software community. Several managers were responsible for my process-improvement experience at Harris Corporation. Phil Henderson, as General Manager of the Information Systems Division (ISD), established the Software Process Team and funded the Software Engineering Process Group (SEPG) to improve the software engineering process. Hank Eyster, as division Director and Steering Committee representative on the Software Process Team, supported training and use of risk assessment and risk management on projects. Gary Natwick, who as SEPG Manager, recognized my enthusiasm for risk management and allowed me time to write articles and present papers. Those who worked with me on the Software-Risk Management Action Team were Clay Eberle, Jane Eden, Gary Natwick, Lon Hixson, Russ Hooper, and Steve Morris. Their cross-functional perspectives helped to evaluate and expand the current documented policy for risk management with a focus on practical-project implementation. The benefits derived from the SEI efforts in technology transfer cannot be overstated. I was able to leverage their expertise to assist pursuits, proposals, and project teams in establishing effective risk management practices. Ken Dymond, Walt Lamia, and George Pandelios at the SEI Risk Program provided my early training in risk assessment. I am grateful for them, and others who contributed to the SEI Risk Program. Those with whom I worked to write a key process area for risk management were: Dr. Robert Charette, Dr. George Kambic, Roy Kimbrell, George Pandelios, and Charlie Weber. Those who made the SEI/Harris technical-collaboration agreement possible included Julia Allen and Clyde Chittister. For help in streamlining the risk-assessment process, I want to thank Carol Ulrich and Marvin Carr. Thanks to Mike Dedolph and Julie Walker for on-the-job training in Software Risk Evaluation, and Audrey Dorofee for training in the Risk Clinic. My involvement in systems engineering process improvement through the International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE) has broadened my perspective in risk management. For those who discussed ideas with me including Dr. George Friedman, Dr. Jerry Lake, Jim Brill, and Dr. Larry Brekka, former Chairman of the INCOSE Risk-Management Working Group. Members who shared their experiences in risk management with me including Art Gemmer, John Hazelwood, Rudy Elam, and Bob Shishko. To members who contributed technical papers on risk practices to the national symposium, especially Dr. Dennis Beude for enlightening me on tools for risk analysis. Many organizations contributed to the Department of DefenseIs Software Acquisition Best Practices Initiative. Those that shared risk practices included Aerospace Corporation, C&C Associates, Ceridian Corporation, Harris Corporation, Mitre Corporation, and Unisys. Norm Brown, initiative coordinator and Director of the Software Program Managers Network (SPMN), deserves the credit for condensing industrial strength software management strategies from the reported best practices. At the SPMN, I learned commercial best practices and the need for them to help meet defense needs at lower cost. The Airlie Software Council, especially opinion leader Tom DeMarco, deserves the credit for encouraging consensus that the number one best practice in software acquisition is formal risk management. I thank the attendees of my Software-Risk Management seminars at the Defense Systems Management College, and in London, Orlando, New Zealand, and Washington, D.C. for sharing their risks, questions, and improvement suggestions. Peter Gordon, my sponsoring editor, provided the opportunity to share my knowledge and experiences. Reviewers who contributed distinctly different perspectives are Tom Gorsuch, Dick Newman, Wade Shaw, and Hank Stuebing. Thanks to those at Addison-Wesley who made this book possible, and especially to Helen Goldstein, who made it a delight. Elaine M. Hall INDIALANTIC, FL. 0201255928P04062001 Excerpted from Managing Risk: Methods for Software Systems Development by Elaine M. Hall All rights reserved by the original copyright owners. Excerpts are provided for display purposes only and may not be reproduced, reprinted or distributed without the written permission of the publisher.

Table of Contents

Foreword: Running Toward Riskp. xiii
Prefacep. xv
About the Authorp. xxi
Part I Risk Management Discoveryp. 1
Chapter 1 Software Risk Managementp. 3
1.1 Foundationsp. 4
1.2 Risk in the Largep. 12
1.3 Risk in the Smallp. 17
1.4 Consequences of Knowledgep. 22
1.5 Consequences of lgnorancep. 23
1.6 Summaryp. 23
1.7 Questions for Discussionp. 24
1.8 Referencesp. 25
Chapter 2 P[superscript 2]I[superscript 2] Success Formulap. 29
2.1 Major Factors in Risk Management Capabilityp. 30
2.2 People: The Human Elementp. 32
2.3 Process: The Steps to Manage Riskp. 39
2.4 Infrastructure: The Organizational Foundationp. 42
2.5 Implementation: The Project Executionp. 45
2.6 Summaryp. 47
2.7 Questions for Discussionp. 48
2.8 Referencesp. 49
Chapter 3 Risk Management Mapp. 51
3.1 The Road to Risk Management Capabilityp. 53
3.2 Risk Management Map Directionsp. 54
3.3 Journey from Problem to Opportunityp. 57
3.4 Journey from Novice to Expertp. 61
3.5 Summaryp. 62
3.6 Questions for Discussionp. 64
3.7 Referencesp. 65
Part II Risk Management Processp. 67
Chapter 4 Identify Riskp. 69
4.1 Define the Risk Identification Processp. 70
4.2 Develop Risk Checklistsp. 75
4.3 Define the Risk Assessment Methodp. 78
4.4 Develop the Risk Management Formp. 82
4.5 Establish the Risk Database Schemap. 82
4.6 Summaryp. 84
4.7 Questions for Discussionp. 84
4.8 Referencesp. 85
Chapter 5 Analyze Riskp. 87
5.1 Define the Risk Analysis Processp. 88
5.2 Define Risk Analysis Techniquesp. 93
5.3 Define Risk Evaluation Criteriap. 100
5.4 Establish the Risk Prioritization Schemep. 102
5.5 Summaryp. 102
5.6 Questions for Discussionp. 103
5.7 Referencesp. 104
Chapter 6 Plan Riskp. 107
6.1 Define the Risk Planning Processp. 108
6.2 Define Risk Resolution Strategiesp. 112
6.3 Define Selection Criteriap. 115
6.4 Develop the Risk Action Plan Templatep. 116
6.5 Summaryp. 117
6.6 Questions for Discussionp. 118
6.7 Referencesp. 119
Chapter 7 Track Riskp. 121
7.1 Define the Risk Tracking Processp. 122
7.2 Define Risk Tracking Techniquesp. 125
7.3 Define Risk Measures and Metricsp. 129
7.4 Define Triggering Devicesp. 130
7.5 Summaryp. 131
7.6 Questions for Discussionp. 132
7.7 Referencesp. 133
Chapter 8 Resolve Riskp. 135
8.1 Define the Risk Resolution Processp. 136
8.2 Define Risk Resolution Techniquesp. 141
8.3 Define Risk Management Return on Investmentp. 143
8.4 Develop a Corrective Action Procedurep. 144
8.5 Summaryp. 145
8.6 Questions for Discussionp. 146
8.7 Referencesp. 146
Part III Risk Management Infrastructurep. 149
Chapter 9 Develop the Policyp. 151
9.1 Obtain Commitmentp. 152
9.2 Allocate Resourcesp. 153
9.3 Survey Existing Practicep. 155
9.4 Define Draft Policyp. 158
9.5 Review Draft Policyp. 159
9.6 Document Policyp. 160
9.7 Approve Policyp. 161
9.8 Communicate Policyp. 161
9.9 Summaryp. 161
9.10 Questions for Discussionp. 162
9.11 Referencesp. 163
Chapter 10 Define Standard Processp. 165
10.1 Establish an Action Teamp. 166
10.2 Develop the Draft Standard Processp. 171
10.3 Review the Draft Standard Processp. 177
10.4 Document the Standard Processp. 178
10.5 Approve the Standard Processp. 179
10.6 Distribute the Standard Processp. 179
10.7 Summaryp. 180
10.8 Questions for Discussionp. 181
10.9 Referencesp. 181
Chapter 11 Train Risk Technologyp. 183
11.1 Prepare for Trainingp. 184
11.2 Develop Training Materialp. 184
11.3 Apply Training Metricsp. 187
11.4 Deliver Trainingp. 188
11.5 Obtain Training Feedbackp. 189
11.6 Summaryp. 190
11.7 Questions for Discussionp. 191
11.8 Referencesp. 191
Chapter 12 Verify Compliancep. 193
12.1 Review the Risk Management Planp. 194
12.2 Audit Agents and Artifactsp. 195
12.3 Generate an Audit Reportp. 197
12.4 Track Action Itemsp. 198
12.5 Summaryp. 199
12.6 Questions for Discussionp. 199
12.7 Referencesp. 200
Chapter 13 Improve Practicep. 201
13.1 Develop an Appraisal Methodp. 202
13.2 Assess Risk Practicesp. 204
13.3 Develop an Improvement Planp. 205
13.4 Implement the Improvement Planp. 206
13.5 Summaryp. 207
13.6 Questions for Discussionp. 207
13.7 Referencesp. 208
Part IV Risk Management Implementationp. 209
Chapter 14 Establish the Initiativep. 211
14.1 Review Risk Management Requirementsp. 212
14.2 Plan Risk Management Activitiesp. 214
14.3 Budget Risk Management Activitiesp. 215
14.4 Schedule Risk Management Activitiesp. 215
14.5 Staff Risk Management Activitiesp. 217
14.6 Coordinate Risk Management Trainingp. 217
14.7 Summaryp. 218
14.8 Questions for Discussionp. 218
14.9 Referencesp. 219
Chapter 15 Develop the Planp. 221
15.1 Outline the Risk Management Planp. 222
15.2 Define Risk Management Goalsp. 222
15.3 Define the Risk Management Strategyp. 223
15.4 Define the Risk Management Processp. 226
15.5 Define Risk Management Verificationp. 226
15.6 Define Risk Management Mechanismsp. 226
15.7 Summaryp. 228
15.8 Questions for Discussionp. 228
15.9 Referencesp. 229
Chapter 16 Tailor the Standard Processp. 231
16.1 Review the Standard Processp. 232
16.2 Examine Tailoring Optionsp. 233
16.3 List Unique Project Factorsp. 234
16.4 Recommend Process Changesp. 234
16.5 Document Standard Process Deviationsp. 235
16.6 Summaryp. 236
16.7 Questions for Discussionp. 237
16.8 Referencesp. 237
Chapter 17 Assess Riskp. 239
17.1 Conduct a Risk Assessmentp. 240
17.2 Develop a Candidate Risk Listp. 243
17.3 Define Risk Attributesp. 245
17.4 Document Identified Riskp. 246
17.5 Communicate Identified Riskp. 247
17.6 Estimate and Evaluate Riskp. 247
17.7 Prioritize Riskp. 247
17.8 Summaryp. 253
17.9 Questions for Discussionp. 255
17.10 Referencesp. 255
Chapter 18 Control Riskp. 257
18.1 Develop Risk Resolution Alternativesp. 258
18.2 Select the Risk Resolution Strategyp. 259
18.3 Develop the Risk Action Planp. 260
18.4 Monitor Risk Statusp. 261
18.5 Execute the Risk Action Planp. 265
18.6 Take Corrective Action as Requiredp. 265
18.7 Summaryp. 266
18.8 Questions for Discussionp. 267
18.9 Referencesp. 267
Part V People in Crisis and Controlp. 269
Chapter 19 Stage 1: Problemp. 271
19.1 Problem Project Overviewp. 272
19.2 The Process Improvement Initiativep. 272
19.3 Process Assessmentp. 277
19.4 Process Assessment Resultsp. 281
19.5 Initiative Hindsightp. 284
19.6 Summary and Conclusionsp. 287
19.7 Questions for Discussionp. 287
19.8 Referencesp. 288
Chapter 20 Stage 2: Mitigationp. 289
20.1 Mitigation Project Overviewp. 290
20.2 Risk Assessment Preparationp. 291
20.3 Risk Assessment Trainingp. 293
20.4 Project Risk Assessmentp. 294
20.5 Project Risk Managementp. 299
20.6 Project Risk Retrospectivep. 301
20.7 Summary and Conclusionsp. 304
20.8 Questions for Discussionp. 305
20.9 Referencesp. 306
Chapter 21 Stage 3: Preventionp. 307
21.1 Prevention Project Overviewp. 308
21.2 Risk Assessment Resultsp. 313
21.3 Risk Managerp. 317
21.4 Risk Practice Surveyp. 321
21.5 Risk Practice Observationsp. 323
21.6 Summary and conclusionsp. 324
21.7 Questions for Discussionp. 325
21.8 Referencesp. 325
Chapter 22 Stage 4: Anticipationp. 327
22.1 Anticipation Project Overviewp. 328
22.2 Proactive Risk Managementp. 328
22.3 Organization Measurement Practicesp. 331
22.4 Risk Management Committeep. 332
22.5 Living Lifecycle Modelp. 334
22.6 Summary and Conclusionsp. 340
22.7 Questions for Discussionp. 341
22.8 Referencesp. 342
Chapter 23 Stage 5: Opportunityp. 343
23.1 Opportunity Project Overviewp. 344
23.2 Fixed-Price Problemsp. 346
23.3 Routine Risk Managementp. 348
23.4 High-Performance Engineeringp. 350
23.5 The Power Pyramidp. 352
23.6 Summary and Conclusionsp. 354
23.7 Questions for Discussionp. 355
23.8 Referencesp. 355
Epiloguep. 357
Glossaryp. 359
Indexp. 369