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Summary
Summary
Flooding can have devastating impacts on people's livelihood, economy and the environment. An important instrument in flood management is floodplain maps, which assist land planners and local authorities in identifying flood-prone areas, and provide useful information for rescue and relief agencies for their operations. Developing floodplain maps often involves flood inundation modeling. This typically requires precipitation and stream flow data, topographic information, building a hydraulic model and calibration of its parameters. Often however, floodplain maps are built on a single model outcome without an explicit consideration of all the sources of uncertainty in the modeling process.
The research presented in this thesis addresses the uncertainty in flood inundation modeling, which may arise from input data and hydraulic modeling approach. The study area is the Sungai Johor basin in Johor, Malaysia, an agriculture-dominated area. The present study analyses the modelling uncertainties arising from estimations of design flow, terrain data sets, geometric description in hydraulic models and different modeling approaches, and develops recommendations for practitioners. Explicit account for uncertainties and studying their impact in flood inundation mapping allow for more informed and effective decision making.
Author Notes
Anuar Md. Ali was born in Kota Tinggi, Johor (Malaysia) in 1973. In 1998, he obtained his Degree in Civil Engineering from Universiti Teknologi Malaysia. He later gained his Master of Science in Water Engineering from University Putra Malaysia in 2004. In 2010, he pursued his PhD study in UNESCO-IHE, Netherlands with research focused on uncertainty in flood inundation modelling.
He served as a design engineer with a consulting engineering firm from 1998 till 2004. Currently, he is an engineer with the Government of Malaysia attached to the Department of Irrigation and Drainage (DID).
Table of Contents
Summary | p. vii |
Samenvatting | p. ix |
Table of Contents | p. xiii |
Chapter 1 Introduction | p. 1 |
1.1 Background | p. 1 |
1.2 Problem statement | p. 2 |
1.3 Flood mapping | p. 3 |
1.4 Uncertainty in flood hazard mapping | p. 5 |
1.5 Research questions | p. 6 |
1.6 Aims and research objectives | p. 6 |
1.7 Dissertation structure | p. 7 |
Chapter 2 Literature review | p. 9 |
2.1 What is floods | p. 9 |
2.2 Types of flood | p. 9 |
2.3 Flood prone areas | p. 11 |
2.4 Hazard and flood hazard | p. 11 |
2.4.1 Definition | p. 11 |
2.5 Flood modelling | p. 13 |
2.5.1 Mathematical model application | p. 14 |
2.5.2 GIS environment | p. 17 |
2.5.3 Input data for flood modelling | p. 18 |
2.6 Uncertainty in flood modelling and mapping | p. 20 |
2.6.1 Definition of uncertainty | p. 20 |
2.6.2 Types of uncertainty | p. 21 |
2.6.3 Sources of uncertainty | p. 22 |
2.7 Flood mapping | p. 24 |
2.7.1 Types and content of flood mapping | p. 24 |
2.7.2 Use of flood maps | p. 27 |
2.7.3 Flood hazard map in Malaysia | p. 29 |
Chapter 3 Study area and data availability | p. 31 |
3.1 Study area | p. 31 |
3.1.1 Administrative | p. 31 |
3.1.2 River systems | p. 33 |
3.1.3 Climate | p. 35 |
3.1.4 Land use | p. 35 |
3.1.5 Flood issues | p. 37 |
3.2 Data Availability | p. 39 |
3.2.1 Hydrological data | p. 39 |
3.2.2 Topography data | p. 40 |
Chapter 4 1-D hydraulic modelling: the role of cross-sections spacing | p. 45 |
4.1 Introduction | p. 45 |
4.2 Methodology | p. 50 |
4.2.1 Hydraulic modelling | p. 50 |
4.2.2 Cross-section spacing | p. 51 |
4.3 Results and Discussion | p. 54 |
4.3.1 Model performance | p. 54 |
4.3.2 Comparing flood water profiles and inundation maps | p. 56 |
4.3.3 Representation of bridge structures in the model | p. 60 |
4.4 Concluding remarks | p. 64 |
Chapter 5 2-D hydraulic modelling: the role of digital elevation models | p. 65 |
5.1 Introduction | p. 65 |
5.2 Differentiation of DEMs re-sampling technique | p. 68 |
5.3 Results and discussion | p. 71 |
5.3.1 Model calibration and validation | p. 71 |
5.3.2 Flood simulation | p. 74 |
5.4 Conclusions | p. 76 |
Chapter 6 1-D hydraulic modelling: the role of digital elevation models | p. 77 |
6.1 Introduction | p. 77 |
6.2 Available data | p. 82 |
6.2.1 Hydraulic modelling | p. 82 |
6.2.2 Digital elevation model | p. 82 |
6.3 Methodology | p. 84 |
6.3.1 Evaluating the DEMs quality | p. 84 |
6.3.2 Model calibration and validation | p. 85 |
6.3.3 Quantifying the effect of the topographic data source on the water surface elevation and inundation area (sensitivity analysis) | p. 86 |
6.3.4 Uncertainty estimation - GLUE analysis | p. 87 |
6.4 Results and discussion | p. 88 |
6.4.1 Quality of DEMs compared with reference points | p. 88 |
6.4.2 Model calibration and validation | p. 91 |
6.4.3 Quantifying the effect of topographic data source on the water surface elevation and inundation area | p. 95 |
6.5 Conclusions | p. 100 |
Chapter 7 Uncertainty in simulating design flood profiles and inundation maps on the Johor River, Malaysia | p. 103 |
7.1 Introduction | p. 103 |
7.2 Methodology | p. 106 |
7.2.1 Model calibration and validation | p. 106 |
7.2.2 Estimation of design flood profile | p. 107 |
7.2.3 Simulation of flood inundation maps | p. 111 |
7.3 Results and discussion | p. 112 |
7.3.1 Calibration and validation | p. 112 |
7.3.2 Estimation of design flood profile | p. 113 |
7.3.3 Simulation of flood inundation map | p. 116 |
7.4 Conclusions | p. 120 |
Chapter 8 Conclusions and recommendations | p. 123 |
8.1 Conclusion | p. 123 |
8.1.1 Summary of conclusions and contributions | p. 125 |
8.1.2 Recommendations | p. 130 |
References | p. 133 |
Acknowledgements | p. 151 |
About the author | p. 155 |
Index of notation and abbreviations | p. 159 |