Cover image for FLOOD INUNDATION MODELING AND HAZARD MAPPING UNDER UNCERTAINTY IN THE SUNGAI JOHOR BASIN, MALAYSIA : Submitted in fulfilment of the requirement of the Board for Doctorates of Delft University of Technology and of the Academic Board of the IHE Delft Institute for Water Education for the Degree of DOCTOR to be defended in public on Monday, March 26, 2018 at 15:00 hours in Delft, the Netherlands
Title:
FLOOD INUNDATION MODELING AND HAZARD MAPPING UNDER UNCERTAINTY IN THE SUNGAI JOHOR BASIN, MALAYSIA : Submitted in fulfilment of the requirement of the Board for Doctorates of Delft University of Technology and of the Academic Board of the IHE Delft Institute for Water Education for the Degree of DOCTOR to be defended in public on Monday, March 26, 2018 at 15:00 hours in Delft, the Netherlands
Physical Description:
xvi, 160
ISBN:
9781138603349
General Note:
Supervisors : Prof. dr. D. P. Solomatine, Prof. dr. G. Di Baldassarre

Submitted in fulfillment of the requirement of the Board for Doctorates of Delft Universuty of Tecnology and the Academoc Board of the IHE Delft Institute fo Water Education for the Degree of DOCTOR to be defende in public on Monday, March 26, 2018 at 15:00 hours in Delft, the Netherlands.
Abstract:
"Flooding can have devastating impacts on peoples livelihood, economy and the environment. One way to minimize flood losses is using floodplain maps, which assist land planners and local authorities in identifying flood-prone areas, and provide useful information for rescue and relief agencies for their operations. Developing floodplain maps often involves flood inundation modeling. This typically requires precipitation and stream flow data, topographic information, the selection of a hydraulic model and the calibration of its parameters. A common representation of floodplain map is based on a single outcome without an explicit consideration of all the sources of uncertainty in the modeling process. The research presented in this thesis addresses the uncertainty in the flood inundation modeling, which may arise from input data and hydraulic modeling approach. The study area is the Sungai Johor basin in Johor, Malaysia, which is an agricultural dominated area.By using a set of sample data for Sungai Johor Basin, the case study show the uncertainties arising from an estimation of design flow, terrain data sets, geometric description in hydraulic models and different modeling approaches. The intent of the research in flood inundation maps is to emphasize the impact of uncertainties in flood inundation maps that not only provide useful results but also suggested further research and improvement of flood inundation mapping practices."
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Thesis (Ph.D) - Delft University of Technology.

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Summary

Summary

Flooding can have devastating impacts on people's livelihood, economy and the environment. An important instrument in flood management is floodplain maps, which assist land planners and local authorities in identifying flood-prone areas, and provide useful information for rescue and relief agencies for their operations. Developing floodplain maps often involves flood inundation modeling. This typically requires precipitation and stream flow data, topographic information, building a hydraulic model and calibration of its parameters. Often however, floodplain maps are built on a single model outcome without an explicit consideration of all the sources of uncertainty in the modeling process.

The research presented in this thesis addresses the uncertainty in flood inundation modeling, which may arise from input data and hydraulic modeling approach. The study area is the Sungai Johor basin in Johor, Malaysia, an agriculture-dominated area. The present study analyses the modelling uncertainties arising from estimations of design flow, terrain data sets, geometric description in hydraulic models and different modeling approaches, and develops recommendations for practitioners. Explicit account for uncertainties and studying their impact in flood inundation mapping allow for more informed and effective decision making.


Author Notes

Anuar Md. Ali was born in Kota Tinggi, Johor (Malaysia) in 1973. In 1998, he obtained his Degree in Civil Engineering from Universiti Teknologi Malaysia. He later gained his Master of Science in Water Engineering from University Putra Malaysia in 2004. In 2010, he pursued his PhD study in UNESCO-IHE, Netherlands with research focused on uncertainty in flood inundation modelling.

He served as a design engineer with a consulting engineering firm from 1998 till 2004. Currently, he is an engineer with the Government of Malaysia attached to the Department of Irrigation and Drainage (DID).


Table of Contents

Summaryp. vii
Samenvattingp. ix
Table of Contentsp. xiii
Chapter 1 Introductionp. 1
1.1 Backgroundp. 1
1.2 Problem statementp. 2
1.3 Flood mappingp. 3
1.4 Uncertainty in flood hazard mappingp. 5
1.5 Research questionsp. 6
1.6 Aims and research objectivesp. 6
1.7 Dissertation structurep. 7
Chapter 2 Literature reviewp. 9
2.1 What is floodsp. 9
2.2 Types of floodp. 9
2.3 Flood prone areasp. 11
2.4 Hazard and flood hazardp. 11
2.4.1 Definitionp. 11
2.5 Flood modellingp. 13
2.5.1 Mathematical model applicationp. 14
2.5.2 GIS environmentp. 17
2.5.3 Input data for flood modellingp. 18
2.6 Uncertainty in flood modelling and mappingp. 20
2.6.1 Definition of uncertaintyp. 20
2.6.2 Types of uncertaintyp. 21
2.6.3 Sources of uncertaintyp. 22
2.7 Flood mappingp. 24
2.7.1 Types and content of flood mappingp. 24
2.7.2 Use of flood mapsp. 27
2.7.3 Flood hazard map in Malaysiap. 29
Chapter 3 Study area and data availabilityp. 31
3.1 Study areap. 31
3.1.1 Administrativep. 31
3.1.2 River systemsp. 33
3.1.3 Climatep. 35
3.1.4 Land usep. 35
3.1.5 Flood issuesp. 37
3.2 Data Availabilityp. 39
3.2.1 Hydrological datap. 39
3.2.2 Topography datap. 40
Chapter 4 1-D hydraulic modelling: the role of cross-sections spacingp. 45
4.1 Introductionp. 45
4.2 Methodologyp. 50
4.2.1 Hydraulic modellingp. 50
4.2.2 Cross-section spacingp. 51
4.3 Results and Discussionp. 54
4.3.1 Model performancep. 54
4.3.2 Comparing flood water profiles and inundation mapsp. 56
4.3.3 Representation of bridge structures in the modelp. 60
4.4 Concluding remarksp. 64
Chapter 5 2-D hydraulic modelling: the role of digital elevation modelsp. 65
5.1 Introductionp. 65
5.2 Differentiation of DEMs re-sampling techniquep. 68
5.3 Results and discussionp. 71
5.3.1 Model calibration and validationp. 71
5.3.2 Flood simulationp. 74
5.4 Conclusionsp. 76
Chapter 6 1-D hydraulic modelling: the role of digital elevation modelsp. 77
6.1 Introductionp. 77
6.2 Available datap. 82
6.2.1 Hydraulic modellingp. 82
6.2.2 Digital elevation modelp. 82
6.3 Methodologyp. 84
6.3.1 Evaluating the DEMs qualityp. 84
6.3.2 Model calibration and validationp. 85
6.3.3 Quantifying the effect of the topographic data source on the water surface elevation and inundation area (sensitivity analysis)p. 86
6.3.4 Uncertainty estimation - GLUE analysisp. 87
6.4 Results and discussionp. 88
6.4.1 Quality of DEMs compared with reference pointsp. 88
6.4.2 Model calibration and validationp. 91
6.4.3 Quantifying the effect of topographic data source on the water surface elevation and inundation areap. 95
6.5 Conclusionsp. 100
Chapter 7 Uncertainty in simulating design flood profiles and inundation maps on the Johor River, Malaysiap. 103
7.1 Introductionp. 103
7.2 Methodologyp. 106
7.2.1 Model calibration and validationp. 106
7.2.2 Estimation of design flood profilep. 107
7.2.3 Simulation of flood inundation mapsp. 111
7.3 Results and discussionp. 112
7.3.1 Calibration and validationp. 112
7.3.2 Estimation of design flood profilep. 113
7.3.3 Simulation of flood inundation mapp. 116
7.4 Conclusionsp. 120
Chapter 8 Conclusions and recommendationsp. 123
8.1 Conclusionp. 123
8.1.1 Summary of conclusions and contributionsp. 125
8.1.2 Recommendationsp. 130
Referencesp. 133
Acknowledgementsp. 151
About the authorp. 155
Index of notation and abbreviationsp. 159