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Library | Item Barcode | Call Number | Material Type | Item Category 1 | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Searching... | 30000010243283 | HD69 .P75 H37 2013 | Open Access Book | Book | Searching... |
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Summary
Summary
The ongoing changes in population, climate, and the availability of energy have resulted in unprecedented threats and opportunities that all project and program managers, portfolio managers, and public planners need to be aware of. The New Triple Constraints for Sustainable Projects, Programs, and Portfolios offers a clear look at how these constraints will impact project undertakings and overlay the current classic constraints of cost, schedule, and performance.
The book provides current facts and information on population, climate change, and energy issues--identifying trends and outlining opportunities in the form of a set of overlays (summary conclusions). The overlays are indexed to current changes that collectively represent a major turning point in the way we use resources and our growing need to seek sustainability. Identifying how changes in the new triple constraints will impact long-range planning, the book:
Explains the rationale behind population forecasts and the likely impact on global supply and demand
Highlights emerging trends in global temperatures and sea level rise, and the impacts on ecology, biology, and the marine environment without political spin
Includes SWOT analyses of fossil fuels, nuclear fuel, and renewable fuels to assist in planning programs that depends upon these energy sources
Provides expert estimates and forecasts of energy availability and alternatives
Discusses the risks of various energy options
Contains supporting Appendices and a comprehensive Bibliography
Most program life cycles last five to ten years, and infrastructure programs last 40 to 50 years; the text provides a rational basis for approaching the new problems that all program and portfolio managers will soon have to deal with. It will help you identify and recognize these current and projected circumstances and risks so
Author Notes
Gregory T. Haugan, PhD, PMP, is the owner of GLH Incorporated specializing in project management support for both U.S. and international organizations. He has over 40 years' experience as a consultant and as a government and private sector official in the planning, scheduling, management and operation of projects of all sizes; and in the development and implementation of program management information systems.
Dr. Haugan has led courses for the Rappahannock Institute for Lifeline Learning, RILL. They included: Development of Human Societies: Lessons for the Northern Neck of Virginia with major emphasis on current problems with potential shortages in energy and water resources. This was followed by: Oil, Energy and Global Warming. It recognized the indivisibility of the topics, presented current theories and discussed the relationship to the Northern Neck of Virginia and what actions were warranted. In addition he has presented two courses on Climate Change and Global Warming addressing the issues of the science, the impact and the mitigation actions which addresses the various claims and theories with regard to global warming phenomena and its current and projected impact on our lives. His interest and knowledge in these areas led to the current book.
He has written five project management books published by Management Concepts, Inc. of Vienna, VA. "Effective Work Breakdown Structures" published in 2002; "Project Planning and Scheduling" also published in 2002; and "The Work Breakdown Structure in Government Contracting" published in 2003 and "Project Management Fundamentals" was published in 2006 and the Second Edition was published in late 2010. Two of the books have been translated into Japanese and Chinese.
He and his wife currently live in Heathsville, Virginia. For recreation he hiked the 100 mile West Highland Way trail in Scotland in 2006, the year before cli
Table of Contents
| Sustainability Overlay Concept and Structure |
| Overlay Zoning Analogy |
| Overlay Criteria |
| 1 Purpose |
| 2 Applicability |
| 3 Specific Rules |
| PCE Breakdown Structure |
| Summary for Policymakers: PCE Overlay |
| Overview |
| Content Analysis of the Population, Climate Change, and Energy (PCE) Overlay |
| Overlay Scenarios |
| Overlay Summary |
| Policies to Complement the PCE Overlay |
| Government Policies |
| General Government Policies |
| World Policies |
| Private Sector Policies |
| Investment Policies Considering Climate Change |
| Program Policies |
| Population Overlay |
| Population Constraint Overlay: Introduction |
| Introduction to Demography |
| Thomas Robert Malthus |
| Socialism |
| Demographic Transition Stages |
| Immigration and Migration |
| World Population |
| World Population Growth |
| Demographic Transitions |
| Health and Mortality Transition |
| Fertility Transition |
| Population Trends |
| Regional Differences |
| United States Population |
| Overview of U.S. Population and Projections |
| Hispanic Population |
| Racial Diversity in the United States |
| United States in 2050 |
| World Age Distribution and Sustainability |
| Age Distributions |
| Sustainability: Carrying Capacity |
| Population Policies and Dilemmas |
| Population Issues and Dilemmas |
| Population Policies |
| Climate Change Overlay |
| Climate Change Constraint Overlay |
| Introduction |
| Definitions |
| History and Background of the Science |
| Years 1824 to 1957 |
| Keeling Curve: 1958 |
| Climate Manifestations |
| Greenhouse Effect |
| Svante Arrhenius Revisited |
| Energy Balance |
| Carbon Cycle |
| Historic CO 2 Levels |
| CO 2 /Temperature Sensitivity |
| The Sun |
| Milankovich Cycles |
| Sunspots and Solar Flares |
| Solar Insolation: Amount of Sunlight |
| Oceans |
| Role of the Oceans |
| Temperature and Heat Content |
| Chemistry of the Oceans |
| Temperature |
| Global Temperature Data |
| Forecast Temperatures |
| Temperature Patterns |
| Temperature Extremes |
| United States Temperatures |
| Cryosphere: The Arctic and the Antarctic |
| Arctic |
| Importance of the Arctic |
| Arctic Warming |
| Permafrost |
| Arctic Ocean |
| Ice Extent and Volume |
| History of Sea Ice Melt |
| Arctic Oil Resources |
| Arctic Ocean Highways |
| Greenland |
| Interest in Greenland |
| Temperatures in Greenland |
| Greenland Ice Loss |
| Antarctica |
| East Antarctica |
| West Antarctica |
| Pine Island |
| Causes of Melting |
| Glaciers and Ice Sheets |
| Climate Change Overlays |
| Indicators of a Warming World |
| Sea Levels |
| Atmosphere: Weather Events |
| Precipitation |
| Storms |
| Arctic Linkages to Storms |
| Droughts |
| Ecosystem Impacts |
| Planning for a Different Future: An Overlay of Adaptation and Mitigation |
| Tragedy of the Commons |
| Planning for a Warming Future: Mitigation of CO 2 Emissions |
| International Actions |
| Actions Required to Meet Mitigation Objectives |
| IPCC Mitigation Solutions |
| Stabilization Wedges |
| Other Emissions Mitigation Alternatives |
| Planning for a Warming Future: Adaptation |
| Adaptation Activities and Planning |
| Adaptation in the United States |
| Adaptive Capacity and Response |
| Climate Policy: Both Mitigation and Adaptation |
| Adaptation and Mitigation Interrelationships |
| Mitigation and Adaptation Portfolios |
| Costs versus Benefits |
| Climate Change Denial |
| Energy Overlay |
| Energy Constraint Overlay |
| Introduction to Energy |
| SWOT Analyses |
| Coal |
| Formation and Discovery |
| SWOT Analysis: Coal |
| Strengths |
| Weaknesses |
| Opportunities |
| Threats |
| Liquid Fuels |
| Formation and Discovery |
| Production and Forecast |
| SWOT Analysis: Oil Industry |
| Strengths |
| Weaknesses |
| Peak Oil |
| Oil Prices |
| Synthesis of Weakness |
| Opportunities |
| Threats |
| Natural Gas |
| Formation and Discovery |
| Natural Gas Usage |
| Shale Gas |
| SWOT Analysis: Natural Gas Industry |
| Strengths |
| Weaknesses |
| Opportunities |
| Clathrates: Methane Hydrate |
| Combined Cycle Gas Turbine Technology |
| Threats |
| Nuclear Energy |
| History and Background |
| SWOT Analysis-Nuclear Energy |
| Renewable Energy Sources |
| Introduction |
| Overview |
| Solar Power |
| The Sun |
| Solar Technologies |
| Solar-Photovoltaic Systems |
| Concentrating Solar Power Systems: Thermal |
| SWOT Analysis: Solar Power |
| Wind Energy |
| Overview |
| SWOT Analysis: Wind Power |
| Geothermal Energy |
| Formation and Discovery |
| SWOT Analysis: Geothermal Energy |
| Lack of Available and Reliable Resource Information |
| High Exploration Risks and High Up-Front Costs |
| Siting, Leasing, and Permitting Issues |
| High Local Impact on the Environment |
| Access to Transmission Infrastructure |
| Absence of National Policy |
| Opportunities |
| Threats |
| Biomass Energy |
| Overview |
| Biomass |
| Biofuels |
| SWOT Analysis-Biomass |
| Hydropower Systems |
| Basic Hydroelectric Systems |
| Other Hydropower Systems |
| Tide Energy Systems |
| Wave Energy Systems |
| Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) |
| Entropy Systems |
| SWOT Analysis-Hydropower |
| Strengths |
| Weaknesses |
| Ecosystem Damage and Loss of Land |
| Flow Shortage |
| Methane Emissions (from Reservoirs) |
| Population Relocation |
| Failure Hazard |
| Construction Costs and Schedules |
| Opportunities |
| Threats |
| Renewable Energy Sources Summary |
| Renewables Overview |
| U.S. Renewables |
| Program Planning in an Energy Constrained and Uncertain World |
| Introduction |
| Transportation Energy Sector |
| Energy General Sector |
| Supporting Appendices |
| Appendix A The Scientific Community Positions on Climate Change and Global Warming |
| Group |
| 1 Renowned Scientific Organizations and Their Conclusions on Climate Change |
| Group |
| 2 Other Scientific Society Components of the Consensus Position |
| National Science Academies of the G8+5 Nations (Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Italy, India, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and the United States) |
| Ecological Society of America |
| American Physical Society |
| International Council of Academies of Engineering and Technological Sciences (CAETS) |
| Network of African Science Academies |
| European Physical Society |
| European Science Foundation Position Paper |
| Federation of Australian Scientific and Technological Societies Policy Statement |
| European Federation of Geologists Position Paper |
| Geological Society of Australia Position Statement |
| International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) Resolution |
| Royal Meteorological Society (UK) |
| American Public Health Association Policy Statement |
| Australian Medical Association |
| Group |
| 3 Faith-Based Organizations Supporting the Consensus Position |
| Pontifical Academy of Sciences, Vatican, Rome, May 11, 2011 |
| Society of Friends Statement on Global Climate Change |
| American Baptist Churches |
| Unitarian Universalist Association of Congregations |
| Threat of Global Warming/Climate Change |
| General Board of the United Methodist Church |
| Advocacy Focus Issues: Climate Change |
| Central Conference of American Rabbis |
| Other Faith-Based Statements |
| Appendix B Statistical Inference |
| Appendix C Risk Management |
| Introduction |
| Definitions |
| Risk Management Process |
| Risk Identification |
| Risk Assessment |
| Developing a Risk Response |
| Risk Control |
| Appendix D: Geology and Climate Change |
| Geology Society of London Position Statement |
| Bibliography |
| Acronyms and Abbreviations |
| Glossary |
