Assessing and managing earthquake risk : geo-scientific and engineering knowledge for earthquake risk mitigation--developments, tools, techniques

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Table 1. 1 reports the world's largest earthquakes since 1900 with respect to number of deaths (larger than or equal to 10 000), also showing the region of occurrence and the corresponding magnitudes. Both, from Figure 1. 2 and Table 1. 1 it is interesting to note that this period of time is characterized by an annual average of 15 000 deaths with two main fluctuations (modal values), the largest in the period 1900 to 1940 and another with a larger value in the decade of 1970-80. Figure 1. 2 shows the number of total deaths from the greatest earthquakes that occurred in the XX century. Although the number of victims has a tendency to decrease with time, the economic losses are increasing significantly (see Chapter 18 of this book). Table 1. 1. World earthquakes since 1900 with number of deaths greater than 10 000 Year Region Deaths Magnitude Year Region Deaths Magnitude 1905 India 19000 8. 6 1960 Agadir, Morocco 12000 5. 9 1906 Chile 20000 8. 6 1962 Iran 12000 7. 3 1907 Central Asia 12000 8. 1 1968 Iran 10000 7. 3 1908 Italy 70000 7. 5 1970 Yunnan, China 10000 7. 5 1915 Italy 29980 7. 5 1970 Peru 67000 7. 7 1917 Indonesia 15000 - 1972 Nicaragua 10000 6. 2 1918 China 10000 7. 3 1976 Guatemala 23000 7. 5 1920 China 220000 8. 5 1976 242000 7. 8 Tangshan, China 1923 Japon 142807 7. 9 1978 25000 7.

Bruce A. BoltAlfonso Lopez Arroyo

Preface	p. vii
Preface	p. ix
Editors' Note	p. xi
Chapter 1 Assessing and managing earthquake risk. An introductionC. S. Oliveira and A. Roca and X. Goula
1.1 Organization of the Book	p. 1
1.2 Natural Hazards. Earthquakes	p. 2
1.3 Earthquake prediction and prevention	p. 5
1.4 Construction practices and urban planning	p. 6
1.5 Emergency planning and managing	p. 8
1.6 Reinforcing and reconstruction of the building stock	p. 10
1.7 Philosophies and policies	p. 10
1.8 Lessons learned from recent earthquakes	p. 11
1.9 Political considerations	p. 11
1.10 Education and mass media risk communication	p. 12
1.11 Definitions of some basic concepts	p. 12
Part I Earthquake Hazard and Strong Motion
Chapter 2 Overview on earthquake hazard assessment - methods and new trendsC. S. Oliveira and A. Campos-Costa
2.1 Introduction	p. 15
2.2 Historical evolution of methods	p. 15
2.3 Fundamentals of seismic hazard analysis	p. 19
2.4 Methodology for seismic risk scenario assessment	p. 28
2.5 New contributions to the earthquake process	p. 31
2.6 Data to support hazard modelling	p. 36
2.7 Results and illustrations	p. 40
2.8 PSHA and the design of civil engineering constructions	p. 43
2.9 Final tendencies of the future development and considerations	p. 46
Chapter 3 Observation, characterization and prediction of strong ground motionX. Goula and T. Susagna
3.1 Introduction	p. 47
3.2 Strong ground motion measurements	p. 47
3.3 Explanatory variables of ground motion	p. 54
3.4 Predictive methods of ground motion	p. 58
3.5 Definition of seismic action	p. 62
Chapter 4 Local site effects and microzonationA. Roca and C. S. Oliveira and A. Ansal and S. Figueras
4.1 Introduction	p. 67
4.2 Importance of local site effects on observed earthquake damage	p. 68
4.3 Zoning, microzoning and resulting maps: a tool for predicting local site effects	p. 71
4.4 Geological, geotechnical and geophysical approaches for soil characterization	p. 73
4.5 Nonlinear effects	p. 75
4.6 Numerical methods for estimating local effects	p. 78
4.7 Experimental methods for estimating local site effects	p. 82
4.8 Topographic effects	p. 86
4.9 Liquefaction and induced effects	p. 87
4.10 Final considerations	p. 89
Chapter 5 Site - city interactionP.-Y. Bard and J.L. Chazelas and Ph. Gueguen and M. Kham and J.F. Semblat
5.1 Introduction	p. 91
5.2 Experimental evidence	p. 92
5.3 Modelling simple interaction	p. 96
5.4 Multiple interaction	p. 100
5.5 A simple energetic model	p. 108
5.6 Concluding comments	p. 112
Part II Vulnerability Assessment
Chapter 6 Vulnerability assessment of dwelling buildingsA.H. Barbat and S. Lagomarsino and L.G. Pujades
6.1 Introduction	p. 115
6.2 Methodologies for vulnerability assessment	p. 116
6.3 Vulnerability index method based on the EMS-98 macroseismic scale	p. 119
6.4 Capacity spectrum method	p. 129
6.5 Final remarks	p. 134
Chapter 7 Vulnerability assessment of historical buildingsS. Lagomarsino
7.1 Introduction	p. 135
7.2 The observed vulnerability in historical buildings	p. 139
7.3 The vulnerability assessment methodology	p. 142
7.4 Macroseismic vulnerability assessment of churches (level 2)	p. 149
7.5 A mechanical model for capacity spectrum method on monuments (level 2)	p. 150
7.6 Final remarks	p. 158
Chapter 8 Experimental techniques for assessment of dynamic behaviour of buildingsM. Navarro and C. S. Oliveira
8.1 Introduction	p. 159
8.2 Brief characterisation of dynamic properties of buildings	p. 160
8.3 Dynamic testing	p. 163
8.4 Techniques for identification of natural periods and evaluation of damping ratio	p. 165
8.5 Comparison of methods. Calibration with analytical techniques	p. 168
8.6 Correlation of natural frequencies and damping with geometry of buildings	p. 173
8.7 Relation between building damage and soil predominant frequencies	p. 180
8.8 Final considerations	p. 182
Chapter 9 Vulnerability and risk assessment of lifelinesK. Pitilakis and M. Alexoudi and S. Argyroudis and O. Monge and C. Martin
9.1 Introduction	p. 185
9.2 Social and economic consequences of lifeline damages	p. 187
9.3 Advancement in risk management of lifelines	p. 188
9.4 Basic features of lifelines	p. 189
9.5 Overview of seismic risk assessment methodology for lifelines	p. 190
9.6 Losses, mitigation	p. 206
9.7 Earthquake risk reduction policy	p. 211
Part III System Analysis and Risk
Chapter 10 Damage scenarios and damage evaluationM. Erdik and Y. Fahjan
10.1 Introduction	p. 213
10.2 Earthquake hazard	p. 214
10.3 Elements at risk	p. 217
10.4 Earthquake vulnerabilities	p. 220
10.5 Urban earthquake risk results	p. 232
Chapter 11 Urban system exposure to natural disasters: an integrated approachP. Masure and C. Lutoff
11.1 Introduction	p. 239
11.2 Characterisation of the urban system	p. 240
11.3 Valuation and classification of elements at risk	p. 247
11.4 Analysis of vulnerability factors and element interdependency	p. 254
11.5 Validation phase with the local actors	p. 256
11.6 Conclusion	p. 258
Chapter 12 Response of hospital systemsL.G. Pujades and A. Roca and C.S. Oliveira and S. Safina
12.1 Introduction	p. 261
12.2 The seismic behaviour of hospitals	p. 261
12.3 Response of the hospital network to an emergency: general aspects	p. 262
12.4 Simplified model: seismic analysis of a regional system	p. 269
12.5 Case study	p. 277
Part IV Managing Earthquake Risk
Chapter 13 Building against earthquakesF. Mana and L. Bozzo and J. Irizarry
13.1 Introduction	p. 287
13.2 Architectural design	p. 287
13.3 Code design and construction details	p. 301
13.4 Actual trends for seismic design	p. 305
13.5 Final remarks	p. 308
Chapter 14 Industrial facilitiesB. Mohammadioun and L. Serva
14.1 Introduction	p. 309
14.2 Seismic hazard-some recent developments in engineering seismology	p. 309
14.3 Design earthquakes in IAEA safety guides	p. 311
14.4 Earthquake-resistant design	p. 315
14.5 Approach for exclusion criteria and minimum seismic design for NPP's, followed by a description of practice in some countries	p. 316
14.6 A proposed approach for other critical facilities	p. 319
Chapter 15 Early warning and rapid damage assessmentM. Erdik and Y. Fahjan
15.1 Background and introduction	p. 323
15.2 Early warning	p. 324
15.3 Rapid post-earthquake damage assessment	p. 325
15.4 Earthquake early warning and rapid response systems	p. 328
Chapter 16 Technical emergency managementA. Goretti and G. Di Pasquale
16.1 Introduction	p. 339
16.2 Immediate occupancy and damage survey	p. 340
16.3 Basis of methodology	p. 345
16.4 Time and space evolution	p. 354
16.5 Procedures and forms	p. 356
16.6 Statistics and predictive models	p. 359
16.7 Special buildings	p. 361
16.8 Training and preparedness	p. 364
16.9 Short term countermeasures	p. 365
Chapter 17 Civil protection managementE. Galanti and A. Goretti and B. Foster and G. Di Pasquale
17.1 Introduction	p. 369
17.2 Civil protection organization	p. 371
17.3 SEMS, California	p. 373
17.4 Augustus method, Italy	p. 375
17.5 Molise 2002 earthquake	p. 378
Chapter 18 Earthquake risk and insuranceR. Spence and A. Coburn
18.1 Insurance and earthquakes	p. 385
18.2 Losses and insurance exposure in recent events	p. 388
18.3 Modelling of earthquake risks for insurance	p. 390
18.4 Modelling earthquake risk for the Turkish catastrophe insurance pool	p. 394
18.5 Conclusion	p. 401
Chapter 19 Strengthening and repairing earthquake damaged structuresA. G. Costa
19.1 Introduction	p. 403
19.2 Historical survey	p. 403
19.3 Defining the constructions	p. 404
19.4 Observation and surveyed damages	p. 406
19.5 Material mechanical characterization	p. 408
19.6 Numerical analysis	p. 414
19.7 Strengthening solutions and application conditions	p. 418
19.8 Conclusions	p. 425
Chapter 20 Advanced techniques in modelling, response and recoveryL. Chiroiu and B. Adams and K. Saito
20.1 Introduction	p. 427
20.2 Remote sensing and geomatic technologies	p. 428
20.3 Applications for earthquake risk management	p. 432
20.4 Case studies	p. 440
20.5 Conclusions	p. 447
Part V Case Studies, Initiatives and Experiences
Chapter 21 Seismic loss scenarios based on hazard disaggregation. Application to the metropolitan region of Lisbon, PortugalA. Campos Costa and M.L. Sousa and A. Carvalho and E. Coelho
21.1 Introduction	p. 449
21.2 Assessment of probability-based seismic loss scenarios	p. 450
21.3 A seismic loss methodology integrated in a geographic information system	p. 453
21.4 Conclusions	p. 461
Chapter 22 Loss scenarios for regional emergency plans: application to Catalonia, SpainT. Susagna and X. Goula and A. Roca and L. Pujades and N. Gasulla and J.J. Palma
22.1 Introduction	p. 463
22.2 Risk assessment	p. 463
22.3 Damage scenario mapping: a tool for emergency preparedness	p. 471
Chapter 23 RISK-UE project: an advanced approach to earthquake risk scenarios with application to different European townsP. Mouroux and B. Le Brun
23.1 Introduction	p. 479
23.2 Previous case studies	p. 480
23.3 The RISK-UE project	p. 491
23.4 Comparison between HAZUS, RADIUS and RISK-UE	p. 507
23.5 Final conclusions	p. 507
References	p. 509
Figures acknowledgements	p. 543

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